Over the past month we have seen some interesting movement along most of the races across this country!
The number of people who had decided not to vote has increased 1% now up to about 3% of people surveyed while the number of voters voting 3rd party has decreased by about 1% now down to about 3%.
This is not the big surprise here: For months the Republicans gathered much support over Democrats with independent voters, but many polls have come our recently showing the democrat either cutting into that group, or actually advancing and taking the lead for independents! However the polls continue to shift Democrats have only capitalized in a few races: in Kentucky the Democrats are making the race competitive, in Florida the Republican governor turned independent is taking a lead over his old primary challenger, while in Nevada Harry Reid has taken 3 of the last 4 polls showing him beating Tea Party- Republican Angel (Now just in the Independent Tea Party group and the American Independent Parties would just drop out of the race -- independents get up to 9% in many polls in NV)!
However: throughout most of the country while democrats are doing a good job getting some of those Obama voters who leaned Republican for the past year to switch to lean Democrat over the last few weeks as the summer campaigns have taken shape; what is keeping these races in check is the small increase of Democrats who have switched from Democrat to Republican. Depending on the race the numbers range from 1-3%, but when you consider that number is doubled for the vote swing, that there is keeping republicans slightly ahead of Democrats right now. There is no guarantee that most or all of these democrats will continue to support the republican, so it is very important that republicans reach out to independents and moderates, not by policy and becoming moderates, but by not coming across as being right wing extremist.
Over the past month Democrats have lost about 2% while Republicans stay about the same and loss almost 1%. All Parties and candidates have taken a dip over the month of July, and i believe we will continue to watch his election cycle take shape over the summer.
Example of how the races are moving: Florida Senate race:
Down in Florida Gov Charlie Crist is helped out by name recognition for being a current Political figure, but over the past 3 months he went from trying to appeal to Conservatives to trying to appeal to Liberals; politically he is running a terrible campaign, but so far he is in the lead in a 3 way race between Conservative Tea Party Republican who easily knocked Crist out of the republican primary, and both of his democratic choices. There are Four things I want voters to consider while looking at these polls showing Crist up between 5-7 points:
1. Many voters on election day who support 3rd party candidates change their mind and just vote strait ticket, younger and senior voters especially. This may hurt Christ among 50% of democrats who may be supporting him thus far and 30% of republicans.
2. Democratic Primary has yet to confirm a democratic nominee, choices are between a well funded not liked liberal, and not so well funded moderate-liberal. Who ever gets the nomination would be able to work at siphoning some of the democratic voters away form Crist and back to the Democratic ticket if they can prove to be a viable candidate.
3. The swing of Conservative - Moderate - Liberal - Libertarian nationally polls since 2008 have Conservatives out numbering Moderates, while Liberal fallen a few points after their historic high during the 08 election. The latest Polls show Conservatives 42% Moderates 35% Liberal 20% other ~4%. If Democrats continue to poll around 15-20% of the vote than Crist who man be seen as the moderate may be getting the falloff support, but if the democrats can reach 25% Crist may be in trouble.
4. Libertarian Candidate who is supported by several tea party groups is more of a Conservative Libertarian, and may take in 5% of the vote. After the Libertarian support dropped 60% (48% Brown supporters 12% Martha) in MA special election to ensure Scot Brown would prevent a new Healthcare bill from being passed, and the Government pushed an older passed bill through the house instead: There has been a huge push in the Libertarian Party to prevent Libertarians from choosing between the two parties. If Libertarian voters split in a similar fashion for Rubio over Crist (especially with many of them tea party or 9/12 supporters) That may give Rubio the push he needs in the end, but if these voters continue to grow and pull support away from the once Tea Party Favorite it will almost make it impossible for Rubio to win. Rubio needed the tea party movement to beat Crist in the republican primary, without them in the general election he can not win.
These is still a lot of time between now and November, especially in those few days in November.
