If you do not know by know The Presidential vote is not one which goes by a popular vote; but a vote which counts all the states based on senatorial representation, house representation - population count, and 3 votes to D.C. As of now 2 states split their congressional votes and give the overall winner the support from the senatorial vote count. Nebraska. Maine. A few other states have and may still be considering similar rulings, sine the election is up to each individual state to decide election laws and procedures. In the Recent Election in 2008 Nebraska gave 1 vote to Obama while McCain won the state overall, what you may not know is that Maine almost gave 1 vote to McCain in a close congressional district.
The road to the WH for the GOP is interesting: I have tested 3 candidates and have found that all 3 have a good chance if today’s political environment stays fairly similar in 16 months, provided the Republican Nominee runs an average or above average campaign and does not see much of a split in the electorate.
Provided that Republicans Nail down the Ohio, Florida vote as it looks like either candidate can each defeat Obama. If not Mitt Romney may be the only one so far to do so.
The President is polling 3-4 points higher than his party, this is down from 5-10 points we have seen last year. The Generic Republican defeats Obama by 2-5 points or is tied with him, but no candidate reaches the success of the generic foe. By my calculations a Republican can defeat Obama even if nationally polled about 1.8 points below the President in a state by state vote. Obama defeated McCain by about 7 points but was less than 4 points away from clinching the nomination across the generic map. We see an above Republican year in 2012, but will it be enough to defeat Obama? Will it be enough to hold onto the House after it is redistricted? Will it be enough to capture the Senate? The answer to each of these questions - probably.
If Mitt Romney is the Nominee he will have a slightly larger unhappy conservative split, but he will also have a larger Democrat-Independent poll. The only other candidate to reach similarities may be Rudy Giuliani if he decides to jump in to the race, and possibly Rick Perry to some extent.
Mitt Romney -- should win in states like NH and Virginia, probably get 1 vote out of Maine, Keep all of Nebraska, and has a decent shot at winning Pennsylvania. He could defeat Obama in what would be considered a landslide, but not quite as impressive as the one we saw in 08".
Michelle Bachmann -- can defeat Obama as well, She should be able to win in Iowa and North Carolina, probably will win in Wisconsin, and has a decent shot at winning her home state of Minnesota. She too could defeat margins similar or greater than Bush-Kerry.
Herman Cain -- was my last candidate I have looked into, he has a decent shot at defeating Obama if presented as the Nominee. He should win in North Carolina, probably will win in Iowa, and could win in Virginia while keeping Nevada in play. With an excellent finish he could defeat Obama in a nail bitter.
Each of these candidates have a path to victory, but if you take a deeper look everyone running believes they have a path to victory as well. One way to Obama to hold onto Oval Office is to Hold onto Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, NH. If the President does that he comes out the winner no matter who the GOP nominee is.
One thing is for sure, Republicans made large gain in 2010 by capturing the independent vote, it was not a large turnout for the GOP faithful, but a huge turnout in irregular voters, many first time and first time in a decade. If the Republicans are going to win they will need to show unity with main street and independent. They need to reach out to the working class as well as the middle class.
If the Tea Party movement does not break for the Republicans, and boost support in 3rd party candidates more so than it boost Republican gains than the Democratic ticket will have succeeded in turning the Tea Party and the Republican Party at odds with one another. Mitt Romney is the only Republic not fully dependent on the Tea Party - ONLY if his image alone continues to reach out to independents and moderate Democrats like he has shown. But like Reagan he can get elected this way, but can a lot of seats in Congress.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
2012 is taking shape, but the GOP didnt get the message
We have seen the likes of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump each head the top of 2012 GOP polling, than we saw candidates like Barbour and Daniels each get motivation to run, and with some incentive they reclined. Sarah Palin hasn't made a move since stepping down from governor, until she recently went on a East coast bus tour. The attention really never sparked, but those who met her is low places did give her high favorable numbers than before she did the tour. Recently the establishment and the business republicans have merged together, again. Its like carbonated water mixed with syrup on a soda machine. They go together every election, and as candidates drop and the playing field changes they too jump from candidate to candidate to prevent the common man's candidate from getting the nomination.
The flock has swarmed over Mitt Romney, in scattering polls, Herman Cane a Tea Party darling in the south, and former CEO to turn around several companies known for Godfather's Pizza and Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann our latest official entry have been picking up the support of different conservative and independent voters. In one Poll Cain hit 17% and w/o Palin reached 20%, meanwhile a few days later in a poll which did not include Palin, Bachmann reached 19%. This is the just the beginning: Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been slowly ticking and has reached up to 13% in a poll last month, and for Sen. Rick Santorum has finally reached outside of the 2-4% tile in a poll placing him with 6%.
What do we know? nothing and everything at the same time. We know that Mayor Giuliani is considering a run and has polled well, even outing Romney in 1 poll. We know Gov Rick Perry is considering a run where he may get the support he needs to be competitive against Romney. We know Christ Christie continues to poll better than the entire field, and ahead or even with President Obama.
We also know that Giuliani met with both Perry and Christie this week. We knew from Christie that he is 100% not running; after finding several sources saying one of them will be.
Another thing is that Palin recently talked Bachmann up in her debate in NH, but stopped there to say the field wasn't formed yet. Huckabee refused to make any endorsements with the current field, or current prospective field because he too said others are coming. Are Huckabee and Palin sitting out for someone? Are they in the circle to know if either Perry or Giuliani is running? Palin may find herself supporting Perry, but Huckabee not so fast.
One thing is for sure, across the internet the GOP establishment and insiders are trying to lock up the deal between the voters and Mitt Romney before the facts come out attacking him over his business experiences, his personal life, religion, political flip-flops, his liberal stances.
What is worse is that the media isn't exposing the light on this other than when they try to sell a story. RealClearPolitics finally that Romney took the lead on there Polling has updated the graphics and polling data but they have failed big time to release accurate polling numbers. One example I will give is PPP(D) polling; they have almost always had several polls, 1 with a list of candidates and on the same sample offered an alternate version w/o a selected candidate such as Huckabee who ended up not running. RCP continues to use the polling numbers from the polling which included Huckabee, Trump, Daniels, Barbour and has not replaced them with any polling which were more accurate which did not have them. Especially the polling w/o Huckabee or Trump which would be most accurate since they both dropped out of the race within days of each other. By simply just using the original polling data and erasing support you are heavily altering the accuracy of the data and removing voter blocks. Which blocks? Evangelical, Born-again, Christian, conservative, independent voices. This will get worse if Palin decides not to run.
If the Tea Party and Conservatives are not fooled by this, we will see a Conservative step up who is independently minded, and Romney will not represent the Far-left as the Republican nominee.
The flock has swarmed over Mitt Romney, in scattering polls, Herman Cane a Tea Party darling in the south, and former CEO to turn around several companies known for Godfather's Pizza and Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann our latest official entry have been picking up the support of different conservative and independent voters. In one Poll Cain hit 17% and w/o Palin reached 20%, meanwhile a few days later in a poll which did not include Palin, Bachmann reached 19%. This is the just the beginning: Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been slowly ticking and has reached up to 13% in a poll last month, and for Sen. Rick Santorum has finally reached outside of the 2-4% tile in a poll placing him with 6%.
What do we know? nothing and everything at the same time. We know that Mayor Giuliani is considering a run and has polled well, even outing Romney in 1 poll. We know Gov Rick Perry is considering a run where he may get the support he needs to be competitive against Romney. We know Christ Christie continues to poll better than the entire field, and ahead or even with President Obama.
We also know that Giuliani met with both Perry and Christie this week. We knew from Christie that he is 100% not running; after finding several sources saying one of them will be.
Another thing is that Palin recently talked Bachmann up in her debate in NH, but stopped there to say the field wasn't formed yet. Huckabee refused to make any endorsements with the current field, or current prospective field because he too said others are coming. Are Huckabee and Palin sitting out for someone? Are they in the circle to know if either Perry or Giuliani is running? Palin may find herself supporting Perry, but Huckabee not so fast.
One thing is for sure, across the internet the GOP establishment and insiders are trying to lock up the deal between the voters and Mitt Romney before the facts come out attacking him over his business experiences, his personal life, religion, political flip-flops, his liberal stances.
What is worse is that the media isn't exposing the light on this other than when they try to sell a story. RealClearPolitics finally that Romney took the lead on there Polling has updated the graphics and polling data but they have failed big time to release accurate polling numbers. One example I will give is PPP(D) polling; they have almost always had several polls, 1 with a list of candidates and on the same sample offered an alternate version w/o a selected candidate such as Huckabee who ended up not running. RCP continues to use the polling numbers from the polling which included Huckabee, Trump, Daniels, Barbour and has not replaced them with any polling which were more accurate which did not have them. Especially the polling w/o Huckabee or Trump which would be most accurate since they both dropped out of the race within days of each other. By simply just using the original polling data and erasing support you are heavily altering the accuracy of the data and removing voter blocks. Which blocks? Evangelical, Born-again, Christian, conservative, independent voices. This will get worse if Palin decides not to run.
If the Tea Party and Conservatives are not fooled by this, we will see a Conservative step up who is independently minded, and Romney will not represent the Far-left as the Republican nominee.
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