If you do not know by know The Presidential vote is not one which goes by a popular vote; but a vote which counts all the states based on senatorial representation, house representation - population count, and 3 votes to D.C. As of now 2 states split their congressional votes and give the overall winner the support from the senatorial vote count. Nebraska. Maine. A few other states have and may still be considering similar rulings, sine the election is up to each individual state to decide election laws and procedures. In the Recent Election in 2008 Nebraska gave 1 vote to Obama while McCain won the state overall, what you may not know is that Maine almost gave 1 vote to McCain in a close congressional district.
The road to the WH for the GOP is interesting: I have tested 3 candidates and have found that all 3 have a good chance if today’s political environment stays fairly similar in 16 months, provided the Republican Nominee runs an average or above average campaign and does not see much of a split in the electorate.
Provided that Republicans Nail down the Ohio, Florida vote as it looks like either candidate can each defeat Obama. If not Mitt Romney may be the only one so far to do so.
The President is polling 3-4 points higher than his party, this is down from 5-10 points we have seen last year. The Generic Republican defeats Obama by 2-5 points or is tied with him, but no candidate reaches the success of the generic foe. By my calculations a Republican can defeat Obama even if nationally polled about 1.8 points below the President in a state by state vote. Obama defeated McCain by about 7 points but was less than 4 points away from clinching the nomination across the generic map. We see an above Republican year in 2012, but will it be enough to defeat Obama? Will it be enough to hold onto the House after it is redistricted? Will it be enough to capture the Senate? The answer to each of these questions - probably.
If Mitt Romney is the Nominee he will have a slightly larger unhappy conservative split, but he will also have a larger Democrat-Independent poll. The only other candidate to reach similarities may be Rudy Giuliani if he decides to jump in to the race, and possibly Rick Perry to some extent.
Mitt Romney -- should win in states like NH and Virginia, probably get 1 vote out of Maine, Keep all of Nebraska, and has a decent shot at winning Pennsylvania. He could defeat Obama in what would be considered a landslide, but not quite as impressive as the one we saw in 08".
Michelle Bachmann -- can defeat Obama as well, She should be able to win in Iowa and North Carolina, probably will win in Wisconsin, and has a decent shot at winning her home state of Minnesota. She too could defeat margins similar or greater than Bush-Kerry.
Herman Cain -- was my last candidate I have looked into, he has a decent shot at defeating Obama if presented as the Nominee. He should win in North Carolina, probably will win in Iowa, and could win in Virginia while keeping Nevada in play. With an excellent finish he could defeat Obama in a nail bitter.
Each of these candidates have a path to victory, but if you take a deeper look everyone running believes they have a path to victory as well. One way to Obama to hold onto Oval Office is to Hold onto Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, NH. If the President does that he comes out the winner no matter who the GOP nominee is.
One thing is for sure, Republicans made large gain in 2010 by capturing the independent vote, it was not a large turnout for the GOP faithful, but a huge turnout in irregular voters, many first time and first time in a decade. If the Republicans are going to win they will need to show unity with main street and independent. They need to reach out to the working class as well as the middle class.
If the Tea Party movement does not break for the Republicans, and boost support in 3rd party candidates more so than it boost Republican gains than the Democratic ticket will have succeeded in turning the Tea Party and the Republican Party at odds with one another. Mitt Romney is the only Republic not fully dependent on the Tea Party - ONLY if his image alone continues to reach out to independents and moderate Democrats like he has shown. But like Reagan he can get elected this way, but can a lot of seats in Congress.
Showing posts with label Independent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Independent. Show all posts
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
My Political Platform
I have struggled to keep my Constitutional - Christian - Conservative perspective on important issues, while also trying to find moderate ideas to pull everyone together without compromising. This very idea goes against the very ideas of Politics i know. Being an Independent-Conservative one day, to a Jefferson-Libertarian or an American-Constitutionalist the next; i think the very similar but different ideas and approaches have really begun to mature ideas of personal liberties as well as my reflection of the role of governments interaction.
Government is not necessarily evil, but a world with too much or too little can result in no liberties or mob rule.
If i were to have made this platform last year my answers would be more "mainline" conservative, and my strays away from the "far" right would be minor. Most of which would not be and continue not be high enough priority to be mentioned on my list at this time.
My Political Platform For Office:
Term limits:
I agree with the notion of term limits but i feel strongly that a 12 year limit is too short of a combination of house and senate, was leaning towards 18 years. However I also think term limits should be placed everywhere in government, including state and local levels.
Medicare & Medicaid:
Needs to be trimmed and reformed, limit wasteful spending, and doctor limitations. If the government is going to cover the cost, it also needs provide excellent care.
Social Security:
Needs to be trimmed down considerably, however security needs to be put in place in order to protect those who have be put money into it. But for those who have never put money into it, regardless of the situation need to be cut back considerably. Federal Politicians need to be taxed and no longer exempt from paying into SS, yet being allowed to collect from it.
Federal Reserve & IRS:
We need to "End The Fed!" We need to stop the Fed from printing money and "buying" our debt with inflation taxsation.
Taxes:
We need to draw up a tax plan similar to the current “Fair Tax” program. Although the tax plan is designed to keep total taxes lower by reducing processing fees for collecting taxes, and reaches out and taxes people with illegal incomes it still has flaws. But threatens the likelihood of a black-market of tax invasion. However a Flat tax will reach out to all citizens, but will not collect taxes from undocumented citizens. What we need to do is have a low flat tax for all Americans, and fair tax on sales in lower levels in order to prevent taxes from being as much of a burden. Tax credits which are on high end goods and services need to be scrapped since they are designed and upheld by the Top class exclusively.
Military:
We need to reduce the size of our Military complex, but only minimally. Where we need to improve is our wasteful spending for entertainment and other spending sprees which do not include food or equipment for our soldiers. We need to speak softly and carry a big stick. No more air raids, and causing bigger problems for future Administrations and Americans to deal with. Our presence all over the World has lead to the attacks on 9/11 because people generally hate out image.
Public Service Pay:
In order to be a Service man, you need to provide services for the greater good of the people, not collect from them. All Pay on Congressional and Executive and Judicial levels need to be cut in half of current salaries. Pay raises no longer be voted by those who directly benefit directly from the increase. The raise should be an automatic trigger only to compensate for gross adjustment with inflation. If inflation goes down, so does the pay. The minimum pay should be at 40% of current average pay. Maximum should be capped at 60% of current pay. Any provisions to over ride these limitations can only be over turned by a simple majority of a provision on the General Election Ballot for congressional election years. State and local governments should follow suit.
Bailouts & Stimulus:
Stimulus should be limited to tax breaks, and tax credits period.
Bailouts cannot be a simple answer. There needs to be approval by 2/3 House, and 60 votes in Senate in order for the President of the United States to give out Bail outs. The Fed can no longer Bailout the government.
Woman’s Health & Abortion:
Abortion can only be used as a medical procedure to save the life of the mother, but only in time of need. All funds for abortions should be cut immediately, because abortion should be an illegal form of birth control. Woman should be allowed to get birth control for free or at reduced cost pending on income. Including and not limited to hormone and non hormone methods. This would save the country billions each year, and reduce the trauma of abortion dramatically. Surgery or an abortions still may be needed for ectopic pregnancy while dealing with birth control.
Drugs & Alcohol:
Marijuana will soon be legal, and young people rich and poor, republican and democrats are all active in this lifestyle. Our government spends more money prisoners for possessing drugs, than every other crime combined. Our cost in prisons are only going up, and we are building more and more prisons. We need to make stricter laws on Drugs for those who are dealing drugs, but we need to consider getting into the Marijuana business, just like many other major countries around the world. Marijuana can be regulated, somewhat controlled, and taxed. Weed needs to be included with Alcohol as a DUI test. Marijuana legal age should be 21. Alcohol will remain at 21, but for active military personnel stationed over seas should be following the laws of the foreign Country. This may or may not lower the drinking age.
Marriage:
It is important that we keep the Values of marriage, however many people get values and traditions confused with one another. The image of marriage already is not what it is suppose to be. The Biblical principles of marriage are already scrapped for most people. Which is why we need to push for a Covenant Marriage which holds up the Biblical marriages and takes the marriage the next religious and legal step to put limitations on divorce. I will leave the destiny of regular marriage in the hands of the reformers once Covenant marriage is established Nationwide.
Government is not necessarily evil, but a world with too much or too little can result in no liberties or mob rule.
If i were to have made this platform last year my answers would be more "mainline" conservative, and my strays away from the "far" right would be minor. Most of which would not be and continue not be high enough priority to be mentioned on my list at this time.
My Political Platform For Office:
Term limits:
I agree with the notion of term limits but i feel strongly that a 12 year limit is too short of a combination of house and senate, was leaning towards 18 years. However I also think term limits should be placed everywhere in government, including state and local levels.
Medicare & Medicaid:
Needs to be trimmed and reformed, limit wasteful spending, and doctor limitations. If the government is going to cover the cost, it also needs provide excellent care.
Social Security:
Needs to be trimmed down considerably, however security needs to be put in place in order to protect those who have be put money into it. But for those who have never put money into it, regardless of the situation need to be cut back considerably. Federal Politicians need to be taxed and no longer exempt from paying into SS, yet being allowed to collect from it.
Federal Reserve & IRS:
We need to "End The Fed!" We need to stop the Fed from printing money and "buying" our debt with inflation taxsation.
Taxes:
We need to draw up a tax plan similar to the current “Fair Tax” program. Although the tax plan is designed to keep total taxes lower by reducing processing fees for collecting taxes, and reaches out and taxes people with illegal incomes it still has flaws. But threatens the likelihood of a black-market of tax invasion. However a Flat tax will reach out to all citizens, but will not collect taxes from undocumented citizens. What we need to do is have a low flat tax for all Americans, and fair tax on sales in lower levels in order to prevent taxes from being as much of a burden. Tax credits which are on high end goods and services need to be scrapped since they are designed and upheld by the Top class exclusively.
Military:
We need to reduce the size of our Military complex, but only minimally. Where we need to improve is our wasteful spending for entertainment and other spending sprees which do not include food or equipment for our soldiers. We need to speak softly and carry a big stick. No more air raids, and causing bigger problems for future Administrations and Americans to deal with. Our presence all over the World has lead to the attacks on 9/11 because people generally hate out image.
Public Service Pay:
In order to be a Service man, you need to provide services for the greater good of the people, not collect from them. All Pay on Congressional and Executive and Judicial levels need to be cut in half of current salaries. Pay raises no longer be voted by those who directly benefit directly from the increase. The raise should be an automatic trigger only to compensate for gross adjustment with inflation. If inflation goes down, so does the pay. The minimum pay should be at 40% of current average pay. Maximum should be capped at 60% of current pay. Any provisions to over ride these limitations can only be over turned by a simple majority of a provision on the General Election Ballot for congressional election years. State and local governments should follow suit.
Bailouts & Stimulus:
Stimulus should be limited to tax breaks, and tax credits period.
Bailouts cannot be a simple answer. There needs to be approval by 2/3 House, and 60 votes in Senate in order for the President of the United States to give out Bail outs. The Fed can no longer Bailout the government.
Woman’s Health & Abortion:
Abortion can only be used as a medical procedure to save the life of the mother, but only in time of need. All funds for abortions should be cut immediately, because abortion should be an illegal form of birth control. Woman should be allowed to get birth control for free or at reduced cost pending on income. Including and not limited to hormone and non hormone methods. This would save the country billions each year, and reduce the trauma of abortion dramatically. Surgery or an abortions still may be needed for ectopic pregnancy while dealing with birth control.
Drugs & Alcohol:
Marijuana will soon be legal, and young people rich and poor, republican and democrats are all active in this lifestyle. Our government spends more money prisoners for possessing drugs, than every other crime combined. Our cost in prisons are only going up, and we are building more and more prisons. We need to make stricter laws on Drugs for those who are dealing drugs, but we need to consider getting into the Marijuana business, just like many other major countries around the world. Marijuana can be regulated, somewhat controlled, and taxed. Weed needs to be included with Alcohol as a DUI test. Marijuana legal age should be 21. Alcohol will remain at 21, but for active military personnel stationed over seas should be following the laws of the foreign Country. This may or may not lower the drinking age.
Marriage:
It is important that we keep the Values of marriage, however many people get values and traditions confused with one another. The image of marriage already is not what it is suppose to be. The Biblical principles of marriage are already scrapped for most people. Which is why we need to push for a Covenant Marriage which holds up the Biblical marriages and takes the marriage the next religious and legal step to put limitations on divorce. I will leave the destiny of regular marriage in the hands of the reformers once Covenant marriage is established Nationwide.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
A Right Alternative: Political Survey | 03/08/10-03/11/10 |
I had decided to reach a different audience in polling: I wanted to reach out to those who are constantly on non politically related message boards and forums, and try to find the real independents of America, the kind of people who do not describe themselves a Strong Democrat or Strong Republican and are more likely to become the swing vote in future elections. My method of choice to reach these people: Chatroulette.com the first web-cam chat site where you are randomly connected with stranger, until one of you clicks NEXT and reconnects with someone else.
After Browsing for Americans, it was hard to find Americans who were interested in taking a 2 minute survey about politics over web-cam. Once I found someone willing, I first asked them if they were legally allowed to vote, followed by the question of asking them if they were likely to vote in the upcoming election. To my surprise I only had two people inform me they would not be voting no matter what, and began to share with me why they don’t vote.
In our polling which was roughly made up 75% young voters, and about 25% middle aged voters: Healthcare seems to much more favorable than President Obama. Young voters also seem to be much undecided over the issue of Healthcare. If Republicans try to attack Democrats come November 2010 over the issue of Health Care, I do not see it picking up much support for Young voters, but if they bring up other issues as well, I think they might be able to bring in some support among some voters who voted for President Obama in 2008. Many youth who are eligible to vote in 2010 but were not in 2008 make up almost entirely the group of unregistered voters, only a small sample of registered voters were not eligible to vote in 2008. This young group is heavily leaning Republican come November in this data. This could be real good news for the GOP who has been working hard since the 2008 election to get more involved with young voters.
One thing I want to point out beyond statistics is that many youth voters who talked to me but did not fill out the survey were afraid of “Big-Brother” government, and other conspiracy theories. Only half of those who were African American filled out the survey, those who did voted for Obama, those who said they weren’t voting in 2012 also told me they Disapprove of Obama, and did not vote in 2008 either.
All surveyors were given contact information to my blog: arightalternative.blogspot.com
A Right Alternative | 03/08/10-03/11/10 | 37(LV)
Title: Political Survey
1.Are you currently a registered voter?
2.If yes: Which party are you registered?
3.If yes: Who did you vote for in 2008 for president?
Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:
4.Obama’s Job Performance?
5.*government run Healthcare Legislation?
6.How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other?
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
Are you currently a registered voter?
If yes: Which party are you registered?
If yes: Who did you vote for in 2008 for president?
Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:
Obama’s Job Performance? (over all)
Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Voters Only)
Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Democrats)
Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Republican)
Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Ind/3rd-Party)
Obama’s Job Performance? (Not yet registered)
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(over all)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Voters Only)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Democrats)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Republicans)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Ind/3rd-Party)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Not yet registered)
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (over all)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Voters Only)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Not yet registered)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Democrats)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Republicans)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Ind/3rd Party)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted for Obama in 2008)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted for McCain in 2008)
How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted 3rd-Party in 2008)
Survey Conducted by A Right Alternative .blogspot.com
All information is accurate, and there is no confident level rated to this survey due to no accurate information as to how many American users are use Chatroulette.com at the time.
After Browsing for Americans, it was hard to find Americans who were interested in taking a 2 minute survey about politics over web-cam. Once I found someone willing, I first asked them if they were legally allowed to vote, followed by the question of asking them if they were likely to vote in the upcoming election. To my surprise I only had two people inform me they would not be voting no matter what, and began to share with me why they don’t vote.
In our polling which was roughly made up 75% young voters, and about 25% middle aged voters: Healthcare seems to much more favorable than President Obama. Young voters also seem to be much undecided over the issue of Healthcare. If Republicans try to attack Democrats come November 2010 over the issue of Health Care, I do not see it picking up much support for Young voters, but if they bring up other issues as well, I think they might be able to bring in some support among some voters who voted for President Obama in 2008. Many youth who are eligible to vote in 2010 but were not in 2008 make up almost entirely the group of unregistered voters, only a small sample of registered voters were not eligible to vote in 2008. This young group is heavily leaning Republican come November in this data. This could be real good news for the GOP who has been working hard since the 2008 election to get more involved with young voters.
One thing I want to point out beyond statistics is that many youth voters who talked to me but did not fill out the survey were afraid of “Big-Brother” government, and other conspiracy theories. Only half of those who were African American filled out the survey, those who did voted for Obama, those who said they weren’t voting in 2012 also told me they Disapprove of Obama, and did not vote in 2008 either.
All surveyors were given contact information to my blog: arightalternative.blogspot.com
A Right Alternative | 03/08/10-03/11/10 | 37(LV)
Title: Political Survey
1.Are you currently a registered voter?
2.If yes: Which party are you registered?
3.If yes: Who did you vote for in 2008 for president?
Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:
4.Obama’s Job Performance?
5.*government run Healthcare Legislation?
6.How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other?
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.
| yes | no |
| 75.6% | 24.3% |
| Democratic | Republican | Ind./3rd Party |
| 42.9% | 32.1% | 25% |
| Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Barr (L) | Baldwin (C) | Not voted |
| 48.2% | 29.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 14.8% |
Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 21.6% | 59.5% | 18.9% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 25% | 53.6% | 21.4% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 41.7% | 25% | 33.3% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 28.6% | 42.8% | 28.6% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 11.1% | 77.8% | 11.1% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 32.4% | 46% | 21.6% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 35.7% | 46.4% | 17.9% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 50% | 8.3% | 41.7% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 0% | 100% | 0% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 57.1% | 42.9% | 0% |
| Approve | Disapprove | Unsure |
| 22.2% | 44.5% | 33.3% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 32.5% | 43.2% | 18.9% | 5.4% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 35.7% | 35.7% | 21.5% | 7.1% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 22.2% | 66.7% | 11.1% | 0% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 58.3% | 25% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 0% | 77.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 42.8% | 28.6% | 28.6% | 0% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 61.5% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 0% | 62.5% | 25% | 12.5% |
| Democrat | Republican | Unsure | other |
| 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
Survey Conducted by A Right Alternative .blogspot.com
All information is accurate, and there is no confident level rated to this survey due to no accurate information as to how many American users are use Chatroulette.com at the time.
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