If you do not know by know The Presidential vote is not one which goes by a popular vote; but a vote which counts all the states based on senatorial representation, house representation - population count, and 3 votes to D.C. As of now 2 states split their congressional votes and give the overall winner the support from the senatorial vote count. Nebraska. Maine. A few other states have and may still be considering similar rulings, sine the election is up to each individual state to decide election laws and procedures. In the Recent Election in 2008 Nebraska gave 1 vote to Obama while McCain won the state overall, what you may not know is that Maine almost gave 1 vote to McCain in a close congressional district.
The road to the WH for the GOP is interesting: I have tested 3 candidates and have found that all 3 have a good chance if today’s political environment stays fairly similar in 16 months, provided the Republican Nominee runs an average or above average campaign and does not see much of a split in the electorate.
Provided that Republicans Nail down the Ohio, Florida vote as it looks like either candidate can each defeat Obama. If not Mitt Romney may be the only one so far to do so.
The President is polling 3-4 points higher than his party, this is down from 5-10 points we have seen last year. The Generic Republican defeats Obama by 2-5 points or is tied with him, but no candidate reaches the success of the generic foe. By my calculations a Republican can defeat Obama even if nationally polled about 1.8 points below the President in a state by state vote. Obama defeated McCain by about 7 points but was less than 4 points away from clinching the nomination across the generic map. We see an above Republican year in 2012, but will it be enough to defeat Obama? Will it be enough to hold onto the House after it is redistricted? Will it be enough to capture the Senate? The answer to each of these questions - probably.
If Mitt Romney is the Nominee he will have a slightly larger unhappy conservative split, but he will also have a larger Democrat-Independent poll. The only other candidate to reach similarities may be Rudy Giuliani if he decides to jump in to the race, and possibly Rick Perry to some extent.
Mitt Romney -- should win in states like NH and Virginia, probably get 1 vote out of Maine, Keep all of Nebraska, and has a decent shot at winning Pennsylvania. He could defeat Obama in what would be considered a landslide, but not quite as impressive as the one we saw in 08".
Michelle Bachmann -- can defeat Obama as well, She should be able to win in Iowa and North Carolina, probably will win in Wisconsin, and has a decent shot at winning her home state of Minnesota. She too could defeat margins similar or greater than Bush-Kerry.
Herman Cain -- was my last candidate I have looked into, he has a decent shot at defeating Obama if presented as the Nominee. He should win in North Carolina, probably will win in Iowa, and could win in Virginia while keeping Nevada in play. With an excellent finish he could defeat Obama in a nail bitter.
Each of these candidates have a path to victory, but if you take a deeper look everyone running believes they have a path to victory as well. One way to Obama to hold onto Oval Office is to Hold onto Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, NH. If the President does that he comes out the winner no matter who the GOP nominee is.
One thing is for sure, Republicans made large gain in 2010 by capturing the independent vote, it was not a large turnout for the GOP faithful, but a huge turnout in irregular voters, many first time and first time in a decade. If the Republicans are going to win they will need to show unity with main street and independent. They need to reach out to the working class as well as the middle class.
If the Tea Party movement does not break for the Republicans, and boost support in 3rd party candidates more so than it boost Republican gains than the Democratic ticket will have succeeded in turning the Tea Party and the Republican Party at odds with one another. Mitt Romney is the only Republic not fully dependent on the Tea Party - ONLY if his image alone continues to reach out to independents and moderate Democrats like he has shown. But like Reagan he can get elected this way, but can a lot of seats in Congress.
