PA-17 has better option on Tuesday!

PA Sen. Dave Argall (R) challenges 18year Congressman Tim Holden. (D)
Both candidates represent Schuylkill County, a county which has not been represented by a republican in the house of representatives since the 1960's!

Abortion:
Tim Holden has been in office for 18 years as a congressmen, and has touted a pro-life rating of 100% up until 2006. In August 2007 according to National Right to Life, Tim Holden soiled his pro-life record be voting against the Pro-life movement for the very first time. Since then he has been going back and forth across the fence voting pro-choice on 10 additional occasions. More importantly on 3 separate occassions he would have been the deciding vote to block pro-choice legislation and opted out of voting. Dave on the other hand has been fighting for pro-life legislation.

Term Limits:
Tim once fought had for term limits, now that he has been in office for 18 years, he is no longer in favor of term limits, which is one of the campaign promises he swore to fight for 18 years ago. Dave Argall on the other hand supports term limits and agrees with what Tim had started 18 years ago, without limits the legislators become disconnected with the people and eventually become corrupt.

Spending:
According to Citizens Against Government Waste: Tim Holden has a 3% for voting against Wasteful spending in congress since 2009. This brings his career down to only 18% which puts him on the bottom tier of candidates for preventing Government waste. Meanwhile Dave Argall was just one of a few Republicans in the State senate to vote against the PA state budget for 2010, saying there is too much spending waste in the bill, and recently the many Democrats in Governors executive branch are predicting that there isn't enough of money to cover the budget, and this is why Rendell attacked Corbett claiming that he will have to raise taxes.

Blue-Dog & Fiscal Spending:
Holden calls himself a “Blue-dog” Fiscal conservative Democrat - which is an organized coalition within the Democratic party to reduce out of control spending, it was created in 1994 to be the middleman between Liberal Democrats, and Republicans in congress. However Tim was the first Blue-dog who voted for the Stimulus package without any pressure from Democratic Leaders in congress. Just 2 weeks ago Holden made the front page of the Republican Herald for being the deciding vote and only Blue-dog to vote to adjure session and come home early which will allow the Bush Tax cuts to expire. With this vote: Holden now is over 96% in line with Nancy Pelosi since she had taken over the Speaker roll. Dave Argall has always been fiscally conservative, he supports a balanced budget, and even headed a team to find hidden spending in the state budget.

Size of Government & Health care:
Tim Holden once represented us, but over the last several years he has begun to represent the Liberal Agenda of NY and CA. Dave on the other hand is in favor of Smaller role in Government, repealing the health care bill to work out compromise where necessary. Tim Holden on the other hand voted Against the final bill once it had obtained the needed votes to pass, but previously he voted “yes” 4 times to allow the bill up for vote rather than to hold off longer and look for common ground between the two parties. He also has voted several times since to uphold challenged portions of the Health Care Law, and has refused to sign the Petition in Congress to repeal the bill, to work on a more effective compromise.

Boarders & Security:
Dave Argall supports the Arizona Immigration Law and supported Legislation in the state which would fight against Illegal immigrants for living and working in PA, the bill would focus on Employers who hire workers without any proof of citizenship, as well as push to convict Aliens who are under arrest for other crimes to be sent back to the country in which they have immigrated from. Including countries around the world, nor just from the south. Tim once criticized the Obama Administration for getting involved in Hazleton PA, for getting involved with local issues; but now would not commit to legislation designed to protect our boarders.


On many issues the choice is pretty clear, if you are Conservative or Liberal you may see a huge contrast between the candidates.
I hope this information is Helpful!

Volunteer for Argall for Congress

Blue Dog Coalition ~ Tail of Fiscal Conservative Reform

Nine term Congressman Tim Holden on PA-17 is a member of the Fiscal conservative Democrat Blue-dog coalition - which is an organized coalition within the Democratic party to reduce out of control spending. Created in 1994 it was to become the middleman between Liberal Democrats, and Republicans in congress.

Tim Holden was one of the first Blue-dogs who voted for the Stimulus package without any pressure from Democratic Leaders in congress. How is increasing debt going to help out economy?

According to Citizens Against Government Waste: Tim Holden has a 3% for voting against Wasteful spending in congress since 2009. This brings his career down to only 18% which puts him on the bottom tear of candidates for preventing Government waste. What happened to being fiscally responsible?

Just 2 weeks ago Holden made the front page of the Republican Herald for being the deciding vote and only Blue-dog to vote to adjure session and come home early; which will allow the Bush Tax cuts to expire. How will this tax increase on many businesses help companies expand and hire new workers, with our unemployment at 9.6%?

Tim Holden voted himself a pay raise 4 times, and even when he did not, he still accepted the money. From 97-2009 Tim’s salary has increased nearly 40K!

Tim has been in office for 18 years touting a pro-life rating of 100% up until 2006. In August 2007 according to National Right to Life, Tim Holden soiled his pro-life record be voting against the Pro-life movement for the very first time. Since then he has been going back and forth across the fence voting pro-choice on 10 additional occasions. More importantly on 3 separate occasions he would have been the deciding vote to either block pro-choice legislation or to support pro-life legislation and opted out of voting.

Holden now is over 96% in line with Speaker Nancy Pelosi since she had taken over the Speaker roll. How is this moderating between the two parties?


It is time that the Conservative on the PA-17th district stand up in unity behind a true Conservative. State Senator Dave Argall has proven time and time again that he is a true Conservative. He was one of a just a select few senators to vote against the current state budget because of the millions of dollars of wasteful spending! Now the budget looks to be under funded. He is pro life, and in favor of term limits. He signed a pledge not to raise taxes. He is in favor of the Bush tax cuts, and would like to find a way to make taxes more fair. When he has made mistakes in the past, he went and corrected them. Many politicians give themselves pay raises, but how many of them go and repeal the pay raise before it comes into effect? Not many.

It is time we send someone to Washington who will represent US, and NOT Nancy Pelosi!

Sen. DAVE ARGALL For CONGRESS PA-17

Polling is key

Based off of some Face Book advertisement poll I clicked on, i would be 77% support of Florida Independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist and 69% in support of Tea Party Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio. Democratic candidate Meek wouldn't reach high enough for it to give me a percentage.

I think the polled questioned heavily asked about Libertarian questions in which neither candidate scored high on, but were designed to give points to Meek and Crist depending on how you voted. I do not know. Trust is a huge factor for me, and that is not measured on a poll, with the fact Crist has changed his mind about several key issues to me i think these same questions may be a different outcome next month. so i would lean towards Rubio if i were voting in FL.

I've mentioned this months ago - Polling is designed to get voters to agree with the pollster, not the get the opinion of the person being polled.

Today i got a phone call from OTR (later i researched to find out this was Yale, and this was an official Quinnipiac Poll for PA)

They asked me my name. Asked me if i still lived at such and such college dorm address, i can not believe you are calling me on my cell phone and asking me if i live in the same dorm room as i did 2 years ago -- address. Of course, i said yes. Because this lie right here is what makes polling great. You just never know who or what you are calling.

They asked me if me or my family worked for any elected official, are working on any campaigns, or work for the news media. (don’t say yes, don’t say yes) Yes I said.

They thanked me for my time and told me that was the conclusion of the poll. I asked them quick enough to prevent them from hanging up, that if i said no would they have asked me about the upcoming election (obviously) they said yes. This is the simplified version actually: the truth is, there was a lot of “umms” and pauses and awkward fumbles and slip up on her end, she did not feel comfortable on the phone calling me, and i not her. This poll came off as amateur. Will be more than interested in finding out the outcome of this poll over the next few days.

I was listening in on, trying to see if i recognized a voice in the background from the blocked number that had called my cell phone, believing at first that it may have been a local political hack.

Here is a point: This group was getting cell phone numbers from out dated college dorm rooms. As far as i know that dorm building is either being torn down, or this is its last year. But on the flip side some pollsters don’t even call cell phones at all, and the Liberal media points out that there is a 4% advantage of Democrats to Republicans using cell phones. I think part of the advantage might just be the fact that younger people might pick up blocked phone calls without screening the call. But who knows, someone will figure out what the ratio of landline and cell phone is per district and also try to factor that in which everything else when manipulating the numbers of a poll.

Voter Identification [Party ID by state]

Now before we discus the issue of Voter Identification by Party, it is important to mention that there are 2 ways for a state to change: a state could loss voters registered to a party, or the state could gain voters registered to the opposing party.
When dealing with Voter identification: Gallup does the most polling for individual states so we will refer to Gallup. Also the categories are Strong Democrat or Strong Republican(which is a +10% advantage)
Leans Democrat or Leans Republican (which is a 5-10% advantage)
Toss Up (States are Less than 5% of voter registration advantage)

Now these polls are done between 2 and 4 times a year and do shift a little from year to year, i know if i pulled the December 2009 polling you would see the process in which states have lost registration to the Democratic party over the past year in a more accurate mean, you would notice about half of the states pull towards the right during the 2009 elections, but you would also find a couple states veering towards the left. For such purposes i will only be comparing Summer of 2009 to summer of 2010 Voter Identification in order to show the movement over the past year.

Gallup Party Voter ID advantage summer 2009

Strong Dem	Lean Dem	TossUP	Strong Rep	Lean Rep
CA, OR, NM, IL, MD, DE, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, HI, NV, WA, IA, MO, AR, MI, WI, OH, KY, WV, NC, PA, NH, ME	OK, LA, TN, FL, VA, IN	ND, TX, MS, GA, AZ, MT, SD, KS, AL, SC	NE	UT, AK, WY, ID

anything in (brackets-- with a number tells you how many columns the state has moved from 2009 to 2010)

Gallup Party Voter ID advantage summer 2010

Strong Dem	Lean Dem	TossUP	Strong Rep	Lean Rep
CA, OR, NM, IL, MD, DE, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, HI	WA, NV, WI, MI, OH, KY, PA, WV, ME	ND, TX, MS, GA, CO, OK, MN, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, TN, VA, NC, FL	AZ, NH, SD, AL, SC	UT, AK, WY, ID, MT, NE, KS

Republican Gains in Voter Identification

Small shift (5-10%)	Midium Shift (10-15%)	Large Shift (+15%)
NE, AZ, SD, SC, AL, NC, VA, TN, IN, LA, OK, ME, WV, PA, OH, MI, NV, WA, KY, WI	MT, KS, CO, MN, IA, MO, AR, FL	NH

Ahh Politics... or Eh Politics!

Over the past month we have seen some interesting movement along most of the races across this country!

The number of people who had decided not to vote has increased 1% now up to about 3% of people surveyed while the number of voters voting 3rd party has decreased by about 1% now down to about 3%.

This is not the big surprise here: For months the Republicans gathered much support over Democrats with independent voters, but many polls have come our recently showing the democrat either cutting into that group, or actually advancing and taking the lead for independents! However the polls continue to shift Democrats have only capitalized in a few races: in Kentucky the Democrats are making the race competitive, in Florida the Republican governor turned independent is taking a lead over his old primary challenger, while in Nevada Harry Reid has taken 3 of the last 4 polls showing him beating Tea Party- Republican Angel (Now just in the Independent Tea Party group and the American Independent Parties would just drop out of the race -- independents get up to 9% in many polls in NV)!

However: throughout most of the country while democrats are doing a good job getting some of those Obama voters who leaned Republican for the past year to switch to lean Democrat over the last few weeks as the summer campaigns have taken shape; what is keeping these races in check is the small increase of Democrats who have switched from Democrat to Republican. Depending on the race the numbers range from 1-3%, but when you consider that number is doubled for the vote swing, that there is keeping republicans slightly ahead of Democrats right now. There is no guarantee that most or all of these democrats will continue to support the republican, so it is very important that republicans reach out to independents and moderates, not by policy and becoming moderates, but by not coming across as being right wing extremist.

Over the past month Democrats have lost about 2% while Republicans stay about the same and loss almost 1%. All Parties and candidates have taken a dip over the month of July, and i believe we will continue to watch his election cycle take shape over the summer.

Example of how the races are moving: Florida Senate race:


Down in Florida Gov Charlie Crist is helped out by name recognition for being a current Political figure, but over the past 3 months he went from trying to appeal to Conservatives to trying to appeal to Liberals; politically he is running a terrible campaign, but so far he is in the lead in a 3 way race between Conservative Tea Party Republican who easily knocked Crist out of the republican primary, and both of his democratic choices. There are Four things I want voters to consider while looking at these polls showing Crist up between 5-7 points:
1. Many voters on election day who support 3rd party candidates change their mind and just vote strait ticket, younger and senior voters especially. This may hurt Christ among 50% of democrats who may be supporting him thus far and 30% of republicans.
2. Democratic Primary has yet to confirm a democratic nominee, choices are between a well funded not liked liberal, and not so well funded moderate-liberal. Who ever gets the nomination would be able to work at siphoning some of the democratic voters away form Crist and back to the Democratic ticket if they can prove to be a viable candidate.
3. The swing of Conservative - Moderate - Liberal - Libertarian nationally polls since 2008 have Conservatives out numbering Moderates, while Liberal fallen a few points after their historic high during the 08 election. The latest Polls show Conservatives 42% Moderates 35% Liberal 20% other ~4%. If Democrats continue to poll around 15-20% of the vote than Crist who man be seen as the moderate may be getting the falloff support, but if the democrats can reach 25% Crist may be in trouble.
4. Libertarian Candidate who is supported by several tea party groups is more of a Conservative Libertarian, and may take in 5% of the vote. After the Libertarian support dropped 60% (48% Brown supporters 12% Martha) in MA special election to ensure Scot Brown would prevent a new Healthcare bill from being passed, and the Government pushed an older passed bill through the house instead: There has been a huge push in the Libertarian Party to prevent Libertarians from choosing between the two parties. If Libertarian voters split in a similar fashion for Rubio over Crist (especially with many of them tea party or 9/12 supporters) That may give Rubio the push he needs in the end, but if these voters continue to grow and pull support away from the once Tea Party Favorite it will almost make it impossible for Rubio to win. Rubio needed the tea party movement to beat Crist in the republican primary, without them in the general election he can not win.

These is still a lot of time between now and November, especially in those few days in November.

PA Governor - Out Spoken Liberty: Sam Rohrer

In the Pennsylvania Governor Primary (May 18th) I only had one option:
Sam Rohrer. His campaign of grass roots efforts may have hindered his name recognition, but everywhere Sam goes, favorable recognition shortly follows. Sam has been consistent with one thing: Being out spoken about Liberty, and applying pressure on Conservative issues, which are dear to Central PA voters and Christians especially. Sam hasn't sunk down to negative ads, and has even ignored questions and opportunities to attack his opponent Corbett, who hasn't been so kind, or conservative. Right now there is a wave of Republicans who think they understand the Tea Party message and are running on a more fiscal message this time around, and look uncomfortable while doing so. These candidates not only stick out like a sore thumb, but more likely will go back to main-stream Republican tendencies in a matter of time. The Tea Party job wasn't only to get Established Republicans and RINOS to think more fiscally responsible and conservatively minded, but it is also a movement to bring in fresh candidates who have stood true to such principles off the campaign trail.

Sam Rohrer for Republican Governor

Being a Christian

Not living the walk and being a Christian in Name Only, is like being a Conservative or Republican in Name Only; in the end of the day after campaigning for God given Liberty, you find yourself supporting a secular philosophy, and replace a world of life and abundance with something of post modernism and progressivism that taste good to the senses and flesh in the here and now, while starving the soul from God's grace. There is nothing worse than being in the presence of God himself and returning to the way of sin! God have mercy on us! For our flesh cries out for pleasures of this world, while our spirit is suffocating and needs you to breathe into us again to give us life anew!