MY 2012 Health Care Plan: Real AND Replace

Since 2010, the economy has dipped lower, components of the Health Care bill have begun, and due to the HCB medical cost have increased through private insurance. There is a need not only for a REAL, but a common sense replacement which is logical. Here is my solution.

1. Repeal the Healthcare Bill
- which was signed into Law, it was rushed, compiled together with special interests, and handled irresponsibly.
2. Increase funding for Medicare and Medicaid by 12%.
3. Reduce wasteful and fraudulent spending in each by 10%.
4. Increase enrollment for eligibly for Medicare by 12% and Medicaid by 8%.
5. Increase Payment Medicare 10% and Medicaid 7%
- opposed to reducing the payment 27.4% in 2012 as per HCB.
- this would be fair to the Medical providers and  Market. It will help keep cost down for other patients, thus preventing more people to be without Health Care coverage.
6. Replace the HealthCare Bill with a Public-Option Temporary Health Coverage Plan.
7. Eliminate Tax Credits and Reduce Tax breaks.
8. Create 3 Public Plans, Plan A basic, Plan B dental, Plan C dental and vision. Each pro rated for single, couple, and family size plans.
9. Add the Tax Plan on the Federal Tax return
- if eligible for a tax return or credit, give the option to pick up the Public Health Coverage Plan in its place.
- this would eliminate cost of transferring money back and forth. Money would be directly spent on Health coverage for needy families. 
10. Attached on Previous Federal Tax Return
- this would be limited to those only on low income.
- The Plan would be temporary, on a year to year basis. 

The Government will need to find ways to pay for this plan, it will NOT pay for itself, but it would be a much cheaper solution. It would prevent the government from owning a monopoly on the Health industry. It ensures people the freedom to make choices. Helps temporary provides needed assistance to families in need. All while putting in place a plan and program to control the unregulated medical yearly cost to the tax payer of unpaid Medical bills.

In 2010 the Democrat Senate wanted the Public Option, The Democratic House did not, the President wanted both systems. Is this something that can get support across the board? Provide Health Coverage, yet within bounds of fiscal constraints.
 - Voice of the Right Front 11/18/2011

Democrats can you support this?

Republicans can you support this?

Tea Party can you support this?

Libertarians can you support this?

Occupy Wall Street can you support this?

American can you work together?

DISCUSS.

270 and win

   If you do not know by know The Presidential vote is not one which goes by a popular vote; but a vote which counts all the states based on senatorial representation, house representation - population count, and 3 votes to D.C. As of now 2 states split their congressional votes and give the overall winner the support from the senatorial vote count. Nebraska. Maine. A few other states have and may still be considering similar rulings, sine the election is up to each individual state to decide election laws and procedures. In the Recent Election in 2008 Nebraska gave 1 vote to Obama while McCain won the state overall, what you may not know is that Maine almost gave 1 vote to McCain in a close congressional district.

   The road to the WH for the GOP is interesting: I have tested 3 candidates and have found that all 3 have a good chance if today’s political environment stays fairly similar in 16 months, provided the Republican Nominee runs an average or above average campaign and does not see much of a split in the electorate.

   Provided that Republicans Nail down the Ohio, Florida vote as it looks like either candidate can each defeat Obama. If not Mitt Romney may be the only one so far to do so.

   The President is polling 3-4 points higher than his party, this is down from 5-10 points we have seen last year. The Generic Republican defeats Obama by 2-5 points or is tied with him, but no candidate reaches the success of the generic foe. By my calculations a Republican can defeat Obama even if nationally polled about 1.8 points below the President in a state by state vote. Obama defeated McCain by about 7 points but was less than 4 points away from clinching the nomination across the generic map. We see an above Republican year in 2012, but will it be enough to defeat Obama? Will it be enough to hold onto the House after it is redistricted? Will it be enough to capture the Senate? The answer to each of these questions - probably.

   If Mitt Romney is the Nominee he will have a slightly larger unhappy conservative split, but he will also have a larger Democrat-Independent poll. The only other candidate to reach similarities may be Rudy Giuliani if he decides to jump in to the race, and possibly Rick Perry to some extent.


    Mitt Romney -- should win in states like NH and Virginia, probably get 1 vote out of Maine, Keep all of Nebraska, and has a decent shot at winning Pennsylvania. He could defeat Obama in what would be considered a landslide, but not quite as impressive as the one we saw in 08".

   Michelle Bachmann -- can defeat Obama as well, She should be able to win in Iowa and North Carolina, probably will win in Wisconsin, and has a decent shot at winning her home state of Minnesota. She too could defeat margins similar or greater than Bush-Kerry.

     Herman Cain -- was my last candidate I have looked into, he has a decent shot at defeating Obama if presented as the Nominee. He should win in North Carolina, probably will win in Iowa, and could win in Virginia while keeping Nevada in play. With an excellent finish he could defeat Obama in a nail bitter.
    Each of these candidates have a path to victory, but if you take a deeper look everyone running believes they have a path to victory as well. One way to Obama to hold onto Oval Office is to Hold onto Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, NH. If the President does that he comes out the winner no matter who the GOP nominee is.

    One thing is for sure, Republicans made large gain in 2010 by capturing the independent vote, it was not a large turnout for the GOP faithful, but a huge turnout in irregular voters, many first time and first time in a decade. If the Republicans are going to win they will need to show unity with main street and independent. They need to reach out to the working class as well as the middle class.

   If the Tea Party movement does not break for the Republicans, and boost support in 3^rd party candidates more so than it boost Republican gains than the Democratic ticket will have succeeded in turning the Tea Party and the Republican Party at odds with one another. Mitt Romney is the only Republic not fully dependent on the Tea Party - ONLY if his image alone continues to reach out to independents and moderate Democrats like he has shown. But like Reagan he can get elected this way, but can a lot of seats in Congress.

2012 is taking shape, but the GOP didnt get the message

We have seen the likes of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump each head the top of 2012 GOP polling, than we saw candidates like Barbour and Daniels each get motivation to run, and with some incentive they reclined. Sarah Palin hasn't made a move since stepping down from governor, until she recently went on a East coast bus tour. The attention really never sparked, but those who met her is low places did give her high favorable numbers than before she did the tour. Recently the establishment and the business republicans have merged together, again. Its like carbonated water mixed with syrup on a soda machine. They go together every election, and as candidates drop and the playing field changes they too jump from candidate to candidate to prevent the common man's candidate from getting the nomination.

The flock has swarmed over Mitt Romney, in scattering polls, Herman Cane a Tea Party darling in the south, and former CEO to turn around several companies known for Godfather's Pizza and Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann our latest official entry have been picking up the support of different conservative and independent voters. In one Poll Cain hit 17% and w/o Palin reached 20%, meanwhile a few days later in a poll which did not include Palin, Bachmann reached 19%. This is the just the beginning: Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been slowly ticking and has reached up to 13% in a poll last month, and for Sen. Rick Santorum has finally reached outside of the 2-4% tile in a poll placing him with 6%.

What do we know? nothing and everything at the same time. We know that Mayor Giuliani is considering a run and has polled well, even outing Romney in 1 poll. We know Gov Rick Perry is considering a run where he may get the support he needs to be competitive against Romney. We know Christ Christie continues to poll better than the entire field, and ahead or even with President Obama.

We also know that Giuliani met with both Perry and Christie this week. We knew from Christie that he is 100% not running; after finding several sources saying one of them will be.

Another thing is that Palin recently talked Bachmann up in her debate in NH, but stopped there to say the field wasn't formed yet. Huckabee refused to make any endorsements with the current field, or current prospective field because he too said others are coming. Are Huckabee and Palin sitting out for someone? Are they in the circle to know if either Perry or Giuliani is running? Palin may find herself supporting Perry, but Huckabee not so fast.

One thing is for sure, across the internet the GOP establishment and insiders are trying to lock up the deal between the voters and Mitt Romney before the facts come out attacking him over his business experiences, his personal life, religion, political flip-flops, his liberal stances.

What is worse is that the media isn't exposing the light on this other than when they try to sell a story. RealClearPolitics finally that Romney took the lead on there Polling has updated the graphics and polling data but they have failed big time to release accurate polling numbers. One example I will give is PPP(D) polling; they have almost always had several polls, 1 with a list of candidates and on the same sample offered an alternate version w/o a selected candidate such as Huckabee who ended up not running. RCP continues to use the polling numbers from the polling which included Huckabee, Trump, Daniels, Barbour and has not replaced them with any polling which were more accurate which did not have them. Especially the polling w/o Huckabee or Trump which would be most accurate since they both dropped out of the race within days of each other. By simply just using the original polling data and erasing support you are heavily altering the accuracy of the data and removing voter blocks. Which blocks? Evangelical, Born-again, Christian, conservative, independent voices. This will get worse if Palin decides not to run.


If the Tea Party and Conservatives are not fooled by this, we will see a Conservative step up who is independently minded, and Romney will not represent the Far-left as the Republican nominee.

My Political Platform

I have struggled to keep my Constitutional - Christian - Conservative perspective on important issues, while also trying to find moderate ideas to pull everyone together without compromising.  This very idea goes against the very ideas of Politics i know. Being an Independent-Conservative one day, to a Jefferson-Libertarian or an American-Constitutionalist the next; i think the very similar but different ideas and approaches have really begun to mature ideas of personal liberties as well as my reflection of the role of governments interaction.

Government is not necessarily evil, but a world with too much or too little can result in no liberties or mob rule.

If i were to have made this platform last year my answers would be more "mainline" conservative, and my strays away from the "far" right would be minor. Most of which would not be and continue not be high enough priority to be mentioned on my list at this time. 

My Political Platform For Office:

      Term limits:
I agree with the notion of term limits but i feel strongly that a 12 year limit is too short of a combination of house and senate, was leaning towards 18 years. However I also think term limits should be placed everywhere in government, including state and local levels.
      Medicare & Medicaid:
Needs to be trimmed and reformed, limit wasteful spending, and doctor limitations. If the government is going to cover the cost, it also needs provide excellent care.
      Social Security:
Needs to be trimmed down considerably, however security needs to be put in place in order to protect those who have be put money into it. But for those who have never put money into it, regardless of the situation need to be cut back considerably. Federal Politicians need to be taxed and no longer exempt from paying into SS, yet being allowed to collect from it.
      Federal Reserve & IRS:
We need to "End The Fed!" We need to stop the Fed from printing money and "buying" our debt with inflation taxsation.
      Taxes:
We need to draw up a tax plan similar to the current “Fair Tax” program. Although the tax plan is designed to keep total taxes lower by reducing processing fees for collecting taxes, and reaches out and taxes people with illegal incomes it still has flaws. But threatens the likelihood of a black-market of tax invasion. However a Flat tax will reach out to all citizens, but will not collect taxes from undocumented citizens. What we need to do is have a low flat tax for all Americans, and fair tax on sales in lower levels in order to prevent taxes from being as much of a burden. Tax credits which are on high end goods and services need to be scrapped since they are designed and upheld by the Top class exclusively.
      Military:
We need to reduce the size of our Military complex, but only minimally. Where we need to improve is our wasteful spending for entertainment and other spending sprees which do not include food or equipment for our soldiers. We need to speak softly and carry a big stick. No more air raids, and causing bigger problems for future Administrations and Americans to deal with. Our presence all over the World has lead to the attacks on 9/11 because people generally hate out image.
      Public Service Pay:
In order to be a Service man, you need to provide services for the greater good of the people, not collect from them. All Pay on Congressional and Executive and Judicial levels need to be cut in half of current salaries. Pay raises no longer be voted by those who directly benefit directly from the increase. The raise should be an automatic trigger only to compensate for gross adjustment with inflation. If inflation goes down, so does the pay. The minimum pay should be at 40% of current average pay. Maximum should be capped at 60% of current pay. Any provisions to over ride these limitations can only be over turned by a simple majority of a provision on the General Election Ballot for congressional election years. State and local governments should follow suit.
      Bailouts & Stimulus:
Stimulus should be limited to tax breaks, and tax credits period.
Bailouts cannot be a simple answer. There needs to be approval by 2/3 House, and 60 votes in Senate in order for the President of the United States to give out Bail outs. The Fed can no longer Bailout the government.
      Woman’s Health & Abortion:
Abortion can only be used as a medical procedure to save the life of the mother, but only in time of need. All funds for abortions should be cut immediately, because abortion should be an illegal form of birth control. Woman should be allowed to get birth control for free or at reduced cost pending on income. Including and not limited to hormone and non hormone methods. This would save the country billions each year, and reduce the trauma of abortion dramatically. Surgery or an abortions still may be needed for ectopic pregnancy while dealing with birth control.
      Drugs & Alcohol:
Marijuana will soon be legal, and young people rich and poor, republican and democrats are all active in this lifestyle. Our government spends more money prisoners for possessing drugs, than every other crime combined. Our cost in prisons are only going up, and we are building more and more prisons. We need to make stricter laws on Drugs for those who are dealing drugs, but we need to consider getting into the Marijuana business, just like many other major countries around the world. Marijuana can be regulated, somewhat controlled, and taxed. Weed needs to be included with Alcohol as a DUI test. Marijuana legal age should be 21. Alcohol will remain at 21, but for active military personnel stationed over seas should be following the laws of the foreign Country. This may or may not lower the drinking age.
      Marriage:
It is important that we keep the Values of marriage, however many people get values and traditions confused with one another. The image of marriage already is not what it is suppose to be. The Biblical principles of marriage are already scrapped for most people. Which is why we need to push for a Covenant Marriage which holds up the Biblical marriages and takes the marriage the next religious and legal step to put limitations on divorce. I will leave the destiny of regular marriage in the hands of the reformers once Covenant marriage is established Nationwide.

( ( ( (o) ) ) ) Target practice

It is a shame that the latest tragedy in Tucson where a Congresswoman and a federal judge were the targets of what is now being called a terrorist attack from within. Many were killed, and many more wounded. The Congresswoman is on of the survivors, after being shot in the head and going through surgery she is now breathing on her own and moving here arms. She is still is critical condition.


Who is the Target? The Tea-Party, Sarah Palin, and Rush Limbaugh.


Sarah Palin used cross-hair targets on her website on districts which were races the tea party supported figure was supporting republicans to aim at seats they normally would not seriously challenge in 2010. Gifford’s seat was one of the seats selected, however Gifford escaped with reelection. The Far Left media wanted to push the story as if she won reelection only to loss her life. But she is fighting, and holding on, making small recovery each day, and the longer she is in the hospital alive, the more real information which comes out.

Rush Limbaugh gets attacked every time something happens in the media, because he is out spoken, and if you disagree with the left media and the white house they like to sum you into all of the problems from within the political party of your background. No evidence against Rush, just accusations to try to get him off the radio.

The Tea-Party is summed in here, because wouldn't a white young male with a gun, who is targeting a democratic congresswoman for murder have to be a Tea-Partier? Isn't that an off the wall stereo type?


Who committed the crime? Jared Loughner of AZ, a first registered Democrat, who changed his registration in 2006 prior to voting to Independent and is on record for voting in both 2006 and 2008. In 2010, the year of the Tea Party, Jared did not vote. His family describe him as an independent liberal. Meanwhile Congresswoman Gifford describes herself in her home state as a conservative democrat.

According to Jared’s friends: he is anti-gun, he is reported to recently saying to a group of his friends that he would do what ever it took for our government to get rid of guns. (notice only the local media reports this) the national media is out attacking the Far-Right, because why else would a young man shoot to kill a Democratic congresswoman? CNN and MSNBC broke the story when the news first aired that Jared was a Tea-partier. But that can be recovered by anyone who knows him, that he is anything there but.

Since this shooting Congress has begun writing up and passing laws for their own protection. Isn't that strange they worry about their own protection but do little for us. Reminds me of all the times they get pay increases, and increased benefits. Or when they first gave themselves the best heath-care in the world, yet what do we have?

Congress is even pushing a Bill that would remove crosshairs as a symbol to be used in reference with political figures and their districts, and in campaigns. They have been accusing the republicans and tea partiers for being the problem here.

Here are just 3 examples of Democrat Senate races where crosshairs were used in their ads 2010.
- Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) against Tea Partier Sharron Angle ®
- Glassman (D) nominee against Tea Partier JD Hayworth® who lost in the primary against incumbent Senator John McCain ®.
- Senator Manchin (D), (then governor of WV) against John Raese ® nominee.

This is not a party issue, and this is not a tragedy to be politicizing!


The Democrats are trying to use this story as they do every story including the Gulf oil Spill for their own glory to attack the Republican party and Tea Party movements to push Liberal legislation. (the oil spill turned sour on the white house) Pres. Obama has given speeches about decreased ammunition, and other regulations, and tougher for people to become licensed to carry firearms.


What is the media frenzy really about? With the ACLU (of all people ) joining up with the NRA, against the Administrations agenda, the government is trying to find away to enforce new strict gun laws. They are just one step closer to taking our guns.


We have become the targets in the crosshairs. We The People. We have a majority in the supreme court who oppose fire arms and are more politically keen to vote in favor of limiting gun rights than ever before.

TSA: You have heard the stories.

So our government regulation for boarding an airline have changed greatly, pat-downs on the suspicious and metal detectors for all have gone a long way crossing over into the land of unforgiveness. Now travels boarding a plane must go through a magnetic radiation cell where they we will taking high-def x-ray images of the nude body. (already some celebrities images have been posted online) while they claim you are only being viewed by 1 person. yet they save each file.


Your alternate plan which makes this acceptable? A heavy pat down, which involves 3 separate pats to the front and back of your personal space, for a hold of 3 seconds, and the right to strip you immediately there in a crowded room if they have an suspicion or have any difficulty. (its been done to children, elderly people, wheelchair bound, and cancer patients).

Doesn’t look like much of a choice does it? The pat downs were enforced even more after a large protest against the TSA scanners, the idea from the government is to make the pat downs so grimy and discomforting that in the future you plan to simply just walk through the revealing scanners.

Here is the problem: radiation. Sickly, elderly and people with lots of exposure to radiation are forced to go to the pat-downs and here do not have a choice for a less invasive process. (so they not be stripped like animals in front of the travelers in line)

Here our first good news: the government is double downing after fighting hard for several months that there is nothing wrong with such processes (which they are exempt from) but now that airports are against them (probably due to decline in air traffic) the government is starting to take a new tone. Now instead of replacing all metal detectors with the TSA scanners, they are actually considering to remove most of the scanners in the airports.

No details were given. I am curious if they will spread them out as an alternate route for passengers to go through the lines much more speedily. Still invasive, but if they can get you to give up privacy for comfort they can break you into it slowly so you don’t even realize you are giving up your rights and freedom.












[conversation i stumbled across on a facebook wall] 

Dave Argall - Pay Raise

There is no doubt that the overnight pay raise as it is remembered was a mistake for Dave Argall to vote with. As people remember: Dave along with a majority of representatives had voted to increase their pay and pensions over night.

Some have even accused Dave are heading up the bill, and lobbying for votes on the bill. Not true.

Dave voted along with the bill, but remains one of just a few members to vote for the bill, whom are still alive in today’s political environment. Within 4 months this pay raise was repealed. Dave Argall and Sam Rohrer co-wrote a bill which would repeal almost every part of the bill. The pay raise and the pension. But this does not explain why the bill went through in the first place.

There were several problems which were attempted to be address by this horrific bill, One was to increase the salary of law makers which had not been adjusted in over 20 years, likewise the pension which wasn't adjusted since shortly after its fund was created. But this is as deep as most people know about or remember.

The local Federal Judges and District Attorney’s salaries are capped based on this pay, without a pay increase here, other salaries could not be raised. At the time of this vote a majority of PA voters were unhappy that such people were not being paid accordingly.

Although in the end of the final bill representatives were allowed to keep 7,000, many of them did not. Dave Argall did not accept this money.

If Dave made this mistake, what will stop him from making similar mistakes again? One thing to remember is that Dave lead the charge to repeal the bill, and he didn’t stop until the bill was successful! He also passed legislation which blocked the state house from voting on bills after 11pm. On top of this he passed a bill which required law makers to not vote on a bill until 24hrs after they had received the bill in which they were voting on. In many states and in Congress these are some laws that need to be put into practice. If we send Dave Argall to Congress, we know he will:
1. Represent Us.
2. Learn from his mistakes.
3. Admit his mistakes.
4. Fight to correct injustice.
5. Push for Common sense laws and practices in Washington.

In 18 years we have continued to get the same things from Tim Holden! He says he is conservative, yet when his vote is needed he votes with his party. He has done so 11 times alone on the issue of Abortion since Aug 2007! He has voted for almost every pet project of government waste projects 97% over the past 2 years! We need to send someone to congress who knows the money they are spending is OURS NOT THEIRS!

PA-17 has better option on Tuesday!

PA Sen. Dave Argall (R) challenges 18year Congressman Tim Holden. (D)
Both candidates represent Schuylkill County, a county which has not been represented by a republican in the house of representatives since the 1960's!

Abortion:
Tim Holden has been in office for 18 years as a congressmen, and has touted a pro-life rating of 100% up until 2006. In August 2007 according to National Right to Life, Tim Holden soiled his pro-life record be voting against the Pro-life movement for the very first time. Since then he has been going back and forth across the fence voting pro-choice on 10 additional occasions. More importantly on 3 separate occassions he would have been the deciding vote to block pro-choice legislation and opted out of voting. Dave on the other hand has been fighting for pro-life legislation.

Term Limits:
Tim once fought had for term limits, now that he has been in office for 18 years, he is no longer in favor of term limits, which is one of the campaign promises he swore to fight for 18 years ago. Dave Argall on the other hand supports term limits and agrees with what Tim had started 18 years ago, without limits the legislators become disconnected with the people and eventually become corrupt.

Spending:
According to Citizens Against Government Waste: Tim Holden has a 3% for voting against Wasteful spending in congress since 2009. This brings his career down to only 18% which puts him on the bottom tier of candidates for preventing Government waste. Meanwhile Dave Argall was just one of a few Republicans in the State senate to vote against the PA state budget for 2010, saying there is too much spending waste in the bill, and recently the many Democrats in Governors executive branch are predicting that there isn't enough of money to cover the budget, and this is why Rendell attacked Corbett claiming that he will have to raise taxes.

Blue-Dog & Fiscal Spending:
Holden calls himself a “Blue-dog” Fiscal conservative Democrat - which is an organized coalition within the Democratic party to reduce out of control spending, it was created in 1994 to be the middleman between Liberal Democrats, and Republicans in congress. However Tim was the first Blue-dog who voted for the Stimulus package without any pressure from Democratic Leaders in congress. Just 2 weeks ago Holden made the front page of the Republican Herald for being the deciding vote and only Blue-dog to vote to adjure session and come home early which will allow the Bush Tax cuts to expire. With this vote: Holden now is over 96% in line with Nancy Pelosi since she had taken over the Speaker roll. Dave Argall has always been fiscally conservative, he supports a balanced budget, and even headed a team to find hidden spending in the state budget.

Size of Government & Health care:
Tim Holden once represented us, but over the last several years he has begun to represent the Liberal Agenda of NY and CA. Dave on the other hand is in favor of Smaller role in Government, repealing the health care bill to work out compromise where necessary. Tim Holden on the other hand voted Against the final bill once it had obtained the needed votes to pass, but previously he voted “yes” 4 times to allow the bill up for vote rather than to hold off longer and look for common ground between the two parties. He also has voted several times since to uphold challenged portions of the Health Care Law, and has refused to sign the Petition in Congress to repeal the bill, to work on a more effective compromise.

Boarders & Security:
Dave Argall supports the Arizona Immigration Law and supported Legislation in the state which would fight against Illegal immigrants for living and working in PA, the bill would focus on Employers who hire workers without any proof of citizenship, as well as push to convict Aliens who are under arrest for other crimes to be sent back to the country in which they have immigrated from. Including countries around the world, nor just from the south. Tim once criticized the Obama Administration for getting involved in Hazleton PA, for getting involved with local issues; but now would not commit to legislation designed to protect our boarders.


On many issues the choice is pretty clear, if you are Conservative or Liberal you may see a huge contrast between the candidates.
I hope this information is Helpful!

Volunteer for Argall for Congress

Blue Dog Coalition ~ Tail of Fiscal Conservative Reform

Nine term Congressman Tim Holden on PA-17 is a member of the Fiscal conservative Democrat Blue-dog coalition - which is an organized coalition within the Democratic party to reduce out of control spending. Created in 1994 it was to become the middleman between Liberal Democrats, and Republicans in congress.

Tim Holden was one of the first Blue-dogs who voted for the Stimulus package without any pressure from Democratic Leaders in congress. How is increasing debt going to help out economy?

According to Citizens Against Government Waste: Tim Holden has a 3% for voting against Wasteful spending in congress since 2009. This brings his career down to only 18% which puts him on the bottom tear of candidates for preventing Government waste. What happened to being fiscally responsible?

Just 2 weeks ago Holden made the front page of the Republican Herald for being the deciding vote and only Blue-dog to vote to adjure session and come home early; which will allow the Bush Tax cuts to expire. How will this tax increase on many businesses help companies expand and hire new workers, with our unemployment at 9.6%?

Tim Holden voted himself a pay raise 4 times, and even when he did not, he still accepted the money. From 97-2009 Tim’s salary has increased nearly 40K!

Tim has been in office for 18 years touting a pro-life rating of 100% up until 2006. In August 2007 according to National Right to Life, Tim Holden soiled his pro-life record be voting against the Pro-life movement for the very first time. Since then he has been going back and forth across the fence voting pro-choice on 10 additional occasions. More importantly on 3 separate occasions he would have been the deciding vote to either block pro-choice legislation or to support pro-life legislation and opted out of voting.

Holden now is over 96% in line with Speaker Nancy Pelosi since she had taken over the Speaker roll. How is this moderating between the two parties?


It is time that the Conservative on the PA-17th district stand up in unity behind a true Conservative. State Senator Dave Argall has proven time and time again that he is a true Conservative. He was one of a just a select few senators to vote against the current state budget because of the millions of dollars of wasteful spending! Now the budget looks to be under funded. He is pro life, and in favor of term limits. He signed a pledge not to raise taxes. He is in favor of the Bush tax cuts, and would like to find a way to make taxes more fair. When he has made mistakes in the past, he went and corrected them. Many politicians give themselves pay raises, but how many of them go and repeal the pay raise before it comes into effect? Not many.

It is time we send someone to Washington who will represent US, and NOT Nancy Pelosi!

Sen. DAVE ARGALL For CONGRESS PA-17

Polling is key

Based off of some Face Book advertisement poll I clicked on, i would be 77% support of Florida Independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist and 69% in support of Tea Party Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio. Democratic candidate Meek wouldn't reach high enough for it to give me a percentage.

I think the polled questioned heavily asked about Libertarian questions in which neither candidate scored high on, but were designed to give points to Meek and Crist depending on how you voted. I do not know. Trust is a huge factor for me, and that is not measured on a poll, with the fact Crist has changed his mind about several key issues to me i think these same questions may be a different outcome next month. so i would lean towards Rubio if i were voting in FL.

I've mentioned this months ago - Polling is designed to get voters to agree with the pollster, not the get the opinion of the person being polled.

Today i got a phone call from OTR (later i researched to find out this was Yale, and this was an official Quinnipiac Poll for PA)

They asked me my name. Asked me if i still lived at such and such college dorm address, i can not believe you are calling me on my cell phone and asking me if i live in the same dorm room as i did 2 years ago -- address. Of course, i said yes. Because this lie right here is what makes polling great. You just never know who or what you are calling.

They asked me if me or my family worked for any elected official, are working on any campaigns, or work for the news media. (don’t say yes, don’t say yes) Yes I said.

They thanked me for my time and told me that was the conclusion of the poll. I asked them quick enough to prevent them from hanging up, that if i said no would they have asked me about the upcoming election (obviously) they said yes. This is the simplified version actually: the truth is, there was a lot of “umms” and pauses and awkward fumbles and slip up on her end, she did not feel comfortable on the phone calling me, and i not her. This poll came off as amateur. Will be more than interested in finding out the outcome of this poll over the next few days.

I was listening in on, trying to see if i recognized a voice in the background from the blocked number that had called my cell phone, believing at first that it may have been a local political hack.

Here is a point: This group was getting cell phone numbers from out dated college dorm rooms. As far as i know that dorm building is either being torn down, or this is its last year. But on the flip side some pollsters don’t even call cell phones at all, and the Liberal media points out that there is a 4% advantage of Democrats to Republicans using cell phones. I think part of the advantage might just be the fact that younger people might pick up blocked phone calls without screening the call. But who knows, someone will figure out what the ratio of landline and cell phone is per district and also try to factor that in which everything else when manipulating the numbers of a poll.

Voter Identification [Party ID by state]

Now before we discus the issue of Voter Identification by Party, it is important to mention that there are 2 ways for a state to change: a state could loss voters registered to a party, or the state could gain voters registered to the opposing party.
When dealing with Voter identification: Gallup does the most polling for individual states so we will refer to Gallup. Also the categories are Strong Democrat or Strong Republican(which is a +10% advantage)
Leans Democrat or Leans Republican (which is a 5-10% advantage)
Toss Up (States are Less than 5% of voter registration advantage)

Now these polls are done between 2 and 4 times a year and do shift a little from year to year, i know if i pulled the December 2009 polling you would see the process in which states have lost registration to the Democratic party over the past year in a more accurate mean, you would notice about half of the states pull towards the right during the 2009 elections, but you would also find a couple states veering towards the left. For such purposes i will only be comparing Summer of 2009 to summer of 2010 Voter Identification in order to show the movement over the past year.

Gallup Party Voter ID advantage summer 2009

Strong Dem	Lean Dem	TossUP	Strong Rep	Lean Rep
CA, OR, NM, IL, MD, DE, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, HI, NV, WA, IA, MO, AR, MI, WI, OH, KY, WV, NC, PA, NH, ME	OK, LA, TN, FL, VA, IN	ND, TX, MS, GA, AZ, MT, SD, KS, AL, SC	NE	UT, AK, WY, ID

anything in (brackets-- with a number tells you how many columns the state has moved from 2009 to 2010)

Gallup Party Voter ID advantage summer 2010

Strong Dem	Lean Dem	TossUP	Strong Rep	Lean Rep
CA, OR, NM, IL, MD, DE, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, HI	WA, NV, WI, MI, OH, KY, PA, WV, ME	ND, TX, MS, GA, CO, OK, MN, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, TN, VA, NC, FL	AZ, NH, SD, AL, SC	UT, AK, WY, ID, MT, NE, KS

Republican Gains in Voter Identification

Small shift (5-10%)	Midium Shift (10-15%)	Large Shift (+15%)
NE, AZ, SD, SC, AL, NC, VA, TN, IN, LA, OK, ME, WV, PA, OH, MI, NV, WA, KY, WI	MT, KS, CO, MN, IA, MO, AR, FL	NH

Ahh Politics... or Eh Politics!

Over the past month we have seen some interesting movement along most of the races across this country!

The number of people who had decided not to vote has increased 1% now up to about 3% of people surveyed while the number of voters voting 3rd party has decreased by about 1% now down to about 3%.

This is not the big surprise here: For months the Republicans gathered much support over Democrats with independent voters, but many polls have come our recently showing the democrat either cutting into that group, or actually advancing and taking the lead for independents! However the polls continue to shift Democrats have only capitalized in a few races: in Kentucky the Democrats are making the race competitive, in Florida the Republican governor turned independent is taking a lead over his old primary challenger, while in Nevada Harry Reid has taken 3 of the last 4 polls showing him beating Tea Party- Republican Angel (Now just in the Independent Tea Party group and the American Independent Parties would just drop out of the race -- independents get up to 9% in many polls in NV)!

However: throughout most of the country while democrats are doing a good job getting some of those Obama voters who leaned Republican for the past year to switch to lean Democrat over the last few weeks as the summer campaigns have taken shape; what is keeping these races in check is the small increase of Democrats who have switched from Democrat to Republican. Depending on the race the numbers range from 1-3%, but when you consider that number is doubled for the vote swing, that there is keeping republicans slightly ahead of Democrats right now. There is no guarantee that most or all of these democrats will continue to support the republican, so it is very important that republicans reach out to independents and moderates, not by policy and becoming moderates, but by not coming across as being right wing extremist.

Over the past month Democrats have lost about 2% while Republicans stay about the same and loss almost 1%. All Parties and candidates have taken a dip over the month of July, and i believe we will continue to watch his election cycle take shape over the summer.

Example of how the races are moving: Florida Senate race:


Down in Florida Gov Charlie Crist is helped out by name recognition for being a current Political figure, but over the past 3 months he went from trying to appeal to Conservatives to trying to appeal to Liberals; politically he is running a terrible campaign, but so far he is in the lead in a 3 way race between Conservative Tea Party Republican who easily knocked Crist out of the republican primary, and both of his democratic choices. There are Four things I want voters to consider while looking at these polls showing Crist up between 5-7 points:
1. Many voters on election day who support 3rd party candidates change their mind and just vote strait ticket, younger and senior voters especially. This may hurt Christ among 50% of democrats who may be supporting him thus far and 30% of republicans.
2. Democratic Primary has yet to confirm a democratic nominee, choices are between a well funded not liked liberal, and not so well funded moderate-liberal. Who ever gets the nomination would be able to work at siphoning some of the democratic voters away form Crist and back to the Democratic ticket if they can prove to be a viable candidate.
3. The swing of Conservative - Moderate - Liberal - Libertarian nationally polls since 2008 have Conservatives out numbering Moderates, while Liberal fallen a few points after their historic high during the 08 election. The latest Polls show Conservatives 42% Moderates 35% Liberal 20% other ~4%. If Democrats continue to poll around 15-20% of the vote than Crist who man be seen as the moderate may be getting the falloff support, but if the democrats can reach 25% Crist may be in trouble.
4. Libertarian Candidate who is supported by several tea party groups is more of a Conservative Libertarian, and may take in 5% of the vote. After the Libertarian support dropped 60% (48% Brown supporters 12% Martha) in MA special election to ensure Scot Brown would prevent a new Healthcare bill from being passed, and the Government pushed an older passed bill through the house instead: There has been a huge push in the Libertarian Party to prevent Libertarians from choosing between the two parties. If Libertarian voters split in a similar fashion for Rubio over Crist (especially with many of them tea party or 9/12 supporters) That may give Rubio the push he needs in the end, but if these voters continue to grow and pull support away from the once Tea Party Favorite it will almost make it impossible for Rubio to win. Rubio needed the tea party movement to beat Crist in the republican primary, without them in the general election he can not win.

These is still a lot of time between now and November, especially in those few days in November.

PA Governor - Out Spoken Liberty: Sam Rohrer

In the Pennsylvania Governor Primary (May 18th) I only had one option:
Sam Rohrer. His campaign of grass roots efforts may have hindered his name recognition, but everywhere Sam goes, favorable recognition shortly follows. Sam has been consistent with one thing: Being out spoken about Liberty, and applying pressure on Conservative issues, which are dear to Central PA voters and Christians especially. Sam hasn't sunk down to negative ads, and has even ignored questions and opportunities to attack his opponent Corbett, who hasn't been so kind, or conservative. Right now there is a wave of Republicans who think they understand the Tea Party message and are running on a more fiscal message this time around, and look uncomfortable while doing so. These candidates not only stick out like a sore thumb, but more likely will go back to main-stream Republican tendencies in a matter of time. The Tea Party job wasn't only to get Established Republicans and RINOS to think more fiscally responsible and conservatively minded, but it is also a movement to bring in fresh candidates who have stood true to such principles off the campaign trail.

Sam Rohrer for Republican Governor

Being a Christian

Not living the walk and being a Christian in Name Only, is like being a Conservative or Republican in Name Only; in the end of the day after campaigning for God given Liberty, you find yourself supporting a secular philosophy, and replace a world of life and abundance with something of post modernism and progressivism that taste good to the senses and flesh in the here and now, while starving the soul from God's grace. There is nothing worse than being in the presence of God himself and returning to the way of sin! God have mercy on us! For our flesh cries out for pleasures of this world, while our spirit is suffocating and needs you to breathe into us again to give us life anew!

PA-17 - 4 man race in the Republican Primay

As you are probably well aware, in my last blog i endorsed Tim Holden (D) over challenger Shelia Dow-Ford (D) in the Districts Democratic Primary.

The polls are showing a though but likely win for State Sen. David Argall(R)if the polls are accurate and the election were held today, with Ryan Frank(R) campaign right behind him. Both of these candidates bring great aspects to run against Inc. Rep Tim Holden(D). Although it is easy for someone to get caught up in the numbers games right away, i am trying to separate Speculation and polls, in order to Support and endorse the candidate i think is best for this District, Pennsylvania, and the United States of America collectively.
During the Presidential Republican Primary i was in the same boat, When the media was battling between Sen. McCain and Gov Romney i wasn't satisfied with either candidate, and stood by Gov Huckabee until the very end. I find myself in a similar situation. Backing the candidate who is polled in 3rd place among registered voters, and is within an arms race in this competitive race. At this point i am confident that either Republican candidate who is able to finish on top of the primary will be strong enough to go against the Democrat favorite Rep Tim Holden competitively, and be capable of defeating Shelia Dow-Ford in a hypothetical match up.
As a Christian i think it is really important that we put in candidates into Office who put both politics and religion aside in order to just get done on their face and give every day to God. Someone who believes Government is important, but not the absolute solution. Someone who will pray for the people of the nation, rather than limit and prevent others from doing so.
My #1 issue as a voter has been: Abortion. I proudly endorse ALLEN GRIFFITH for PA-17 congressional district. He respects all life, and loves all people with God's love. And as a sign to my support and loyalty, I have volunteered for his campaign.

Although i am aware that is possible that Allen Griffith may not win the primary, i am hoping that he will get the exposure he needs in order to win, but if this doesn't happen i am willing to support the candidate who does.

Home town Congressional District (PA-17)

In PA-17: Tim Holden(D) *Blue Dog Conservative, who is attacked as being a Democrat in Name only from the left, and a Conservative in name only from the right, is in his most exciting re-election of his career.
Holden has voted twice against the Obama-care healthcare vote, his reasoning was that he would not vote for any bill that could possibly support abortions. This middle talk was great for Conservative “Pro-lifers” in Central PA, however it wasn’t conservative enough for many republicans, and was too damaging for the Liberal bass of the Democratic Base who has set a Liberal Challenger Sheila Dow-Ford to face Holden in the Republican leaning district. Since splitting with the Democratic party over Healthcare, the AFL-CIO has stripped Holden of endorsement and has endorsed Dow-Ford.

- The Establishment in PA politics has Dave Argall as the Republican Nominee who could challenge Holden for his hot seat come November. Argall has quickly jumped from PA congress to PA Senate after the death of Sen. Rhoades, who had served our region with great pride and respect. He has the backing of the State GOP as well as positive news coverage, as active State Rep he has the largest on ground team across the district. His signs can be seen scattered across the entire district.

However, 3 candidates have all surged throughout PA17. However with the backing Argall of the media, and the state GOP, the counties in the district so far have opted out of endorsing any candidate over the other.

- Frank Ryan, is a retired Marian Corp and small businessman, who ran in the republican primary in 2004 for the seat, talking about fiscal responsibility prior to the economic turmoil. He has the country areas of Schuylkill country wall papered with his yard signs. He has a great Historic and political understanding of the Constitution and Bill of Rights.
- Allen Griffith, is a retired minister who is fighting for the foundational principles of Country. He focuses on state rights, and small federal government. He believes our Federal role is to protect its citizens, not to simply provide.
- Josh First, is a Washington businessman who is the President and CEO of Appalachian Land & Conservation Services Co. He is focusing on the farmland and cultural aspect of central PA.

Tim Holden has a huge advantage in this district when compared with other Democrats, He is conservative, and he lives in Schuylkill County which is one of the larger counties which is fully intake, which is a major chuck of PA-17. Although he has a democratic primary opponent from Harrisburg, He is favored to advance to the general ticket for his 5th run in the 17th district (and 10th term as PA congressman)
However all of his opponents want to know one thing: Tim Holden voted in favor of term limits for a max of 3 terms in congress, so why is it that he is running for his 10th term?

Tim Holden for Democratic nomination
“I here want to make the endorsement: If you are a Democrat or Independent democratic voter: I feel as if Tim Holden the Blue Dog democrat represent major parts of PA17 better than his Democratic primary opponent Dow-Ford. Although Holden is not a perfect match for the Republican leaning district, he has strong mural beliefs against abortion.”

In my next post I will be reviewing the Republican candidates once more over before making my final Republican Nomination for the PA17 district. In approximately 3 weeks I will be making my Formal General Election endorsement for the Congressional race.

A Right Alternative: Political Survey | 03/08/10-03/11/10 |

       I had decided to reach a different audience in polling: I wanted to reach out to those who are constantly on non politically related message boards and forums, and try to find the real independents of America, the kind of people who do not describe themselves a Strong Democrat or Strong Republican and are more likely to become the swing vote in future elections. My method of choice to reach these people: Chatroulette.com the first web-cam chat site where you are randomly connected with stranger, until one of you clicks NEXT and reconnects with someone else.
        After Browsing for Americans, it was hard to find Americans who were interested in taking a 2 minute survey about politics over web-cam. Once I found someone willing, I first asked them if they were legally allowed to vote, followed by the question of asking them if they were likely to vote in the upcoming election. To my surprise I only had two people inform me they would not be voting no matter what, and began to share with me why they don’t vote.
         In our polling which was roughly made up 75% young voters, and about 25% middle aged voters: Healthcare seems to much more favorable than President Obama. Young voters also seem to be much undecided over the issue of Healthcare. If Republicans try to attack Democrats come November 2010 over the issue of Health Care, I do not see it picking up much support for Young voters, but if they bring up other issues as well, I think they might be able to bring in some support among some voters who voted for President Obama in 2008. Many youth who are eligible to vote in 2010 but were not in 2008 make up almost entirely the group of unregistered voters, only a small sample of registered voters were not eligible to vote in 2008. This young group is heavily leaning Republican come November in this data. This could be real good news for the GOP who has been working hard since the 2008 election to get more involved with young voters.
         One thing I want to point out beyond statistics is that many youth voters who talked to me but did not fill out the survey were afraid of “Big-Brother” government, and other conspiracy theories. Only half of those who were African American filled out the survey, those who did voted for Obama, those who said they weren’t voting in 2012 also told me they Disapprove of Obama, and did not vote in 2008 either.
          All surveyors were given contact information to my blog: arightalternative.blogspot.com

A Right Alternative | 03/08/10-03/11/10 | 37(LV)
Title: Political Survey
1.Are you currently a registered voter?
2.If yes: Which party are you registered?
3.If yes: Who did you vote for in 2008 for president?
Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:
4.Obama’s Job Performance?
5.*government run Healthcare Legislation?
6.How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other?
* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.



Are you currently a registered voter?

yes	no
75.6%	24.3%

If yes: Which party are you registered?

Democratic	Republican	Ind./3rd Party
42.9%	32.1%	25%

If yes: Who did you vote for in 2008 for president?

Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Barr (L)	Baldwin (C)	Not voted
48.2%	29.6%	3.7%	3.7%	14.8%

Do you Approve, Disapprove, or are you currently unsure of the following:

Obama’s Job Performance? (over all)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
21.6%	59.5%	18.9%

Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Voters Only)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
25%	53.6%	21.4%

Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Democrats)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
41.7%	25%	33.3%

Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Republican)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
0%	100%	0%

Obama’s Job Performance? (Reg Ind/3rd-Party)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
28.6%	42.8%	28.6%

Obama’s Job Performance? (Not yet registered)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
11.1%	77.8%	11.1%

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(over all)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
32.4%	46%	21.6%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Voters Only)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
35.7%	46.4%	17.9%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Democrats)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
50%	8.3%	41.7%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Republicans)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
0%	100%	0%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Reg Ind/3rd-Party)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
57.1%	42.9%	0%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

*government run Healthcare Legislation?(Not yet registered)

Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
22.2%	44.5%	33.3%

* Did not specify between the House or Senate Bills.

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (over all)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
32.5%	43.2%	18.9%	5.4%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Voters Only)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
35.7%	35.7%	21.5%	7.1%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Not yet registered)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%	0%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Democrats)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
58.3%	25%	8.3%	8.3%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Republicans)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
0%	77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Reg Ind/3rd Party)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
42.8%	28.6%	28.6%	0%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted for Obama in 2008)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
61.5%	7.7%	23.1%	7.7%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted for McCain in 2008)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
0%	62.5%	25%	12.5%

How do you intend on voting in your state races in 2010: Democrat, Republican, Other? (Voted 3rd-Party in 2008)

Democrat	Republican	Unsure	other
0%	100%	0%	0%

Survey Conducted by A Right Alternative .blogspot.com
All information is accurate, and there is no confident level rated to this survey due to no accurate information as to how many American users are use Chatroulette.com at the time.

You wouldn't get a loan to buy a car you don't like and won't use.

You wouldn't get a loan to buy a car you don't like and won't use, please don't vote on a Healthcare bill we do not like. There is a difference between these two points - it isn't the difference between taking out a loan for a car, or dipping into your saving account for health insurance, but who makes the decision. We all want cheaper and better health insurance, because our health system has many flaws and problems to it, also it is in our American dream that we deserve bigger and better no matter what the subject.
The Obama Administration and media for the most part are attacking "Nay" voters as Right-Wing Neo-Conservative Extremist. But the truth is that the democrats have the voters to pass a bill. The argument is that the Republicans now have 41 voters, but they do not explain that they already passed the HC bill when republican only had 40 votes the day prior to MA Senator Scot Brown was sworn in.
So what is the Problem? There is a conflict of interest between Liberals and Loyal Democrats. The Democrats want to pass the Dec 2009 bill that was passed in the Senate in the House: then to vote to make amendments to it. The argument is: Healthcare will not pass in the Senate again.
Well if i were strong Democrat who trusted the party: which they probably are trying to do, that would be enough for me. Support the bill, and change it, right?
Wrong!
Americans have two general options
1.) Democratic View: Spend a lot of money, get a lot of stuff done.
2.) Republican View: Spend little money, and try to fix some of the problems.

Obviously 2 extremes.
The Obama Compromise? Spend a lot of money, and try to fix some of the problems.
The curent bill not liked by: President Obama, his administration, the house, the democratic voter block, and American public.

The Liberals in the Party want to see a Public Option, as well and increased Medicare and abortions. Without the Public option a trillion plus dollar healthcare bill isn't going to bring in much results.
The Blue-dog Conservatives and some moderate Democrats want to see less spending, and abortion limitations.
So if we trust that the Obama Administration to pass a near 2trillion dollar health care bill on a bill that both Liberal and Conservatives agree are at the very point of moderation between the two school of thought that it wouldn't help but hurt the healthcare situation in the country; and we try to amend the bill after it is signed into law, then how does the bill get amended?
The senate says they can't vote on a better bill now as it is? How do we amend it if it will be voted down in the senate? The Argument to pass the bill is simply just that of - YES WE CAN pass this bill, not a VOTE FOR CHANGE.

-------------------------------------------------------------
I actually have something in the works: I have been doing my own political surveys: I found a way to survey the "stereo typical" person who was either a independents, swing voters, and young voters from the past 2008 election to get their opinions on the job of the president, and healthcare.
I am about half way done my goal of surveys: and i am actually shocked with some of my results and many of the conversation with real Americans most of which are frustrated right now with the entire political spectrum.

Polling Data vs Polling figures

If you are gearing up for an upcoming election the thing you often times look for to get an idea how the race is going to result is polling data.
I cannot say that i have a degree in election polling, but i can say that i did get involved first hand with political polling in the 2008 election once, both for PA and DE. Being the person on the end of the phone who bothered you while you were eating or running out the door, you see things a little bit differently.
The standard size polling data is often time 500 sample, however is small states like Delaware for example 280-350 is good enough for qualifications. The Poll must reach a percent of the state population, as well as an equal proportion in the poll in each county or district as the state population. The poll must also reach general stereotype of the region, for example if an area is mostly elderly people the polling data should reflect that. If it is a college town, is should reflect the younger age group. If you are in an inner city you should have higher numbers of minorities such as blacks or Hispanics depending on where you are sampling. Your sample size should also be similar with male to female ratio of the state and areas of polling. Now do all polls do a good job at this, for the most part yes, but sometimes they do slip up on some of these voter blocks in some data. To some degree it can be forgiven, in others it can not. But you get the point.

A controversial figure has to do with how calls are conducted: if it is a robo call many people are more likely to conduct the survey to an automatic message, but there is always risk of less serious responses.
In a person to person call: the person conducting the survey can convince you to choose one answer over the other. Also the way questions are asked or read off can push you to answer one way over the other.

-enough of that: its time to get onto the tricks that polling has come up with to mislead its raw data.

we are going to look at the RCP average for President Obama's Approval vs disapproval ratings:
RCP Average [2/17 - 3/4] -- [48.7] [45.7] = [+3.0]

Gallup [3/2 - 3/4] [1547 A] [50] [44] = [+6]
Rasmussen Reports [3/2 - 3/4] [1500 LV] [46] [53] = [-7]
Ipsos/McClatchy [2/26 - 2/28] [1076 A] [53] [44] = [+9]
FOX News [2/23 - 2/24] [900 RV] [47] [45] = [+2]
POS (R) [2/17 - 2/18] [900] [RV] [48] [48] = [Tie]
Newsweek [2/17 - 2/18] [1009 A] [48] [40] = [+8]

above we have the 6 latest national polls on President Obama's approval rating. First you see the name of the polling firm: Gallup ie. next you see the time the poll was conducted: 3/2-3/4: this is a 2 day polling cycle. Next you will find a number followed by an ab. 1547 A ie. the next numbers in line are the approval/positive number: 50 which is 50% followed by the disapproval/negative number of 44 which is 44%. The last number is basic math: 50-44 = 6%. The remaining numbers not in the data reflect no opinion/ unsure or another candidate (usually a 3rd party candidate not polled).

When it comes to the number: the old myth is that the higher the sample size the more accurate: this is true to some degree. With a low number you usually see for example "a margin of 3.5%-4% and on a higher sample size it is cut down as little as "1.5%" usually. However the truth is beyond 2.5% it is almost like guessing if the additional samples are going to make the data more accurate or less accurate; a sample is a sample. if you sampled 25% or 50% of voters that is a bit excessive: that would be an "election".

So what is important here: the most important information when looking at a poll is the abbreviation after the sample size. If you notice above: grad any poll with the same abbreviation and the results should be somewhat similar, now compare different ones and there are larger ranges of differences. What do these symbols mean?

There are 3 common for official polls.
1. A
For a poll to be official it must contain only Adults in the sample: When you get these annoying calls the first thing they ask if is if you are old enough to vote, or 18. If you say no, they ask for an adult.
There are polls done without this criteria, but you will not find them posted on official poll averages.
This is the least accurate form of polling.
2. RV
Registered Voters: After you are asked if you are old enough the vote: one of the first questions the surveyor will ask you is if you are registered to vote, or will register to vote prior to the election being surveyed. If you say no, they say thank you for your time *click*
This polling data is much more accurate than Adults only data, because it eliminates those who can not vote due to either their own reason or because of legal reasons such as criminal laws in some states or non citizens.
3. LV
This polling is the most accurate especially immediately prior to an election: Likely Voters. Towards the end of a survey you are almost always asked how likely you are to vote in the upcoming election. Depending on the survey you are given either 3 or 5 choices. For example: Will not vote, not likely, somewhat likely, likely, very likely.
In this data: if you say either Not going to vote, or not likely going to vote your information will not be counted towards the final results of the poll, but still included in the general questions asked. Polling finds that those who are most involved and/or informed in elections are most likely going to vote. So many time there are registered voters who have strong opinions, but don't find it necessary to go and vote on election day for which ever reason, the biggest reason statically is that your vote doesn't matter, or either choice is not going to make a difference.

Real Clear Politics founder calls Gallup-Rasmussen the most accurate polling combination. These polls make a wide range of the spectrum.
Gallup usually polls Adults only, besides when they team up with USA Today or a few other groups to poll RV polls. While Rasmussen Almost always polls in LV, when able too. This is why Rasmussen prior to elections is the most accurate, while Gallup is the best as noticing national future trend rather than immediate results.

In our RCP sample for today 3/5/10
we see Obama up 3+ points.
A average = Obama is up by 7.67%
RV average = Obama is up by 1pt.
LV Rasmussen = (-)7 points

With elections only 8 months away campaigns should be focusing on RV and LV right now, and in the next couple months they should be focusing only on LV response.

Over the past 2 weeks we have seen many liberal/democratic leaning firms release their data in either A or RV form, when in some cases they normally use the RV/LV form. this is the pollster trick.

Gov Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Movement

     Yesterday was the first day of the Tea Party Convention. Small in numbers due to outrageous ticket prices, but isn’t that expected if the group trying to pull 15 different chapters all called “Tea Party” together? Including Tax Day Tea Party, Pinellas Patriots, 9/12 Tea Party Patriots, as well as other American, Independent, Liberty, Constitutional, and State Tea Parties. Maybe not.

     If you can afford to pay 549.00 a ticket, or 349.00 to see the main speaker than I guess it is more of a fundraising event for exclusive members in order to raise money for the rest of the group? I simply do not know for sure. But if there is any time to start fundraising money besides over the internet now is an excellent time to start: election are only in 9 months. [just enough time to get knocked up and have a baby]

     One of yesterday’s biggest hits from the Far Left was attacking the involvement of Gov Sarah Palin, who was the main speaker during the first night. It is no surprise that there are a lot of Palin supporters who would rather see her on the bottom of a presidential ticket rather than on top, but this shouldn’t limit her from endorsing and helping a political movement. Isn’t that the point of a movement, to get the governing officials and advocates in line with the people? YES.

     The media is calling Palin and the Tea Party the Split and destruction of the Republican Party. Lets stop right there for a moment - Did the Democrats warn President G W Bush when he signed the No Child Left Behind Act (which was a water down version of the Democratic legislation written up) that it would destroy the Republican Party image? No they did not. Did they warm President Bush that his Stimulus Package he signed was too little, too late and that it would make it almost impossible for John McCain during the 2008 election (even though the Obama Administration controlled about half of that money and signed in a second Stimulus Package just a few months later) and Republicans across the country to get elected? NO!

     Then why would Democratic Leaders Warn Republicans that getting involved with a civilian lead political movement is going to destroy their Political Party? Isn’t that what they want? Indeed that is what the Progressives want. Remember the Progressives?

     The Progressives were such a force that they had actually split from the Democratic Party and ran candidates under several different Democratic-Progressive 3rd Party bids for office during Presidential elections.

     Its hard to imagine that the Progressive Party ended the means of the Democratic Party, splitting it in two and allowing Republicans to take forever unpreventable control of the Government for the past several decades, because that did not happen. The Progressive Era was exactly the same Re-aligning shift in the Democratic Party then, as the Tea Party movement has been breached by the Republican Party today.

     Just over the past 9 years the Democrats have been telling the Republicans that it is time to re-invent themselves because Americans are seeing the comparisons clearly between the two parties. They were telling Republicans to shift closer to the center for two reasons:

1. Anger Moderate Republicans who are already irritated with the GOP, and silently encouraging them and especially voters to jump ship.
2. To cause Conservative Republicans more grief in how the “good old boys” are destroying the Republican Party Platform, to discourage them from affiliating with the Party.

     Lets make some comparisons to the Progressive Leadership who controlled the Democratic Process over the Years. Remember 1980: Young Progressive-Liberal Senator Ted (Edward) Kennedy was fighting the Democratic Party, trying to change the rules along the process to defeat Jimmy Carter to take his bid and control of the direction of the Democratic Party. 30 years later: the man was known as: The Lion in the Senate, the man who had Liberalized the Party and shifted it to the left, who had pushed President Obama over Senator H R Clinton in the 2008 election. Prior to this race in 1980 he was just the youngest Kennedy with the least experience or clout.

        That might be it! Liberals are worried! They see Palin as the candidate who is willing to allow the people to change the Republican Party, Like Ted Kennedy did in the Democratic Party 30 years earlier. Maybe we will see the Government of Power turn into the Government of the People! Could it be that with time, experience, and exposure that Sarah Palin could become a modern day political icon? You Betcha!